POLL-Czech Q4 GDP growth seen slowing, Feb CPI in check

...well in check despite a slight pick-up in February, Reuters polls showed on Monday.

Annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP), a wide measure of output produced within the European Union member country's borders, is estimated to have fallen to 5.2 percent from 5.8 percent in the third quarter .

The median estimate came from responses of 13 analysts whose estimates ranged from 4.3 to 5.9 percent.

The data, due for release on March 9, is likely to confirm a gradual slowdown in economic growth to around a 5 percent trend rate, still more than double the growth rates seen in the developed economies of the "old" EU states.

A separate poll among 14 analysts gave a median estimate for year-on-year inflation to quicken to 1.5 percent in February from nearly 2-year through of 1.3 percent in January. The inflation figures are due on March 8.

Growth has cooled from its cycle peak in the final quarter of 2005 when GDP grew 6.7 percent, largely reflecting a weakening exports expansion as the one-off boost from the launch of a large car making plant petered out.

The growth rate suggested by the median estimate leaves the Czechs trailing the white-hot 9.5 percent fourth-quarter expansion in the neighbouring Slovak economy. Regional peer Poland also grew faster, at a 6.4 percent clip.

"Despite the ongoing economic growth, supported by increasing domestic and foreign demand, the inflationary pressures remain very moderate," said Vojtech Benda, senior economist at ING Wholesale Banking.

The rise in consumer prices has undershot the central bank's tolerance range of one percentage point either side of a 3 percent inflation goal.

Central bank (CNB) policymakers held interest rates steady for the fifth month running last week and re-inforced market expectations that benign price pressures require no urgent policy tightening.

But a rebound in household spending, a consumer credit boom and the prospect of sustained robust growth have led investors to bet the CNB will resume a gradual, albeit moderate, tightening sometime during the second half of this year.

** For TABLE detailing GDP forecasts, double click on [ID:nL0579286] ** For estimates for inflation and other indicators due next month.........[ID:nL0574972]

((Writing by Marek Petrus; Editing by David Christian-Edwards; Reuters Messaging: rm://marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; e-mail: prague.newsroom@reuters.com or marek.petrus@reuters.com; Tel: +420 224 190 477))

Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/