PREVIEW-Slovak Feb inflation seen dropping to 15-mth low

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* When: March 15, 0800 GMT

* Inflation seen slowing, rates still seen on hold

By Martin Santa

BRATISLAVA, March 5 (Reuters) - The Slovak annual EU-norm inflation rate is expected to have dropped to a 15-month low in February thanks to lower cost of petrol fuels, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The survey of 10 analysts forecast EU-norm inflation rate at 2.1 percent, year-on-year, in February, after 2.2 percent annual price growth in January. The monthly price rise was seen slowing to 0.2 percent, from 0.5 percent seen in January.

"Decline in fuel prices will help reach a 15-month low, and the inflation outlook is favourable," said Lucia Steklacova, senior analyst at ING Bank Bratislava.

"We expect EU-norm inflation to slow down below 2 percent by year-end, and that will create room for a 50 basis point cut in the second half of the year," Steklacova said.

EU-norm inflation, which the central bank (NBS) targets as part of Slovakia's plan to adopt the euro in 2009, slowed down at the start of 2007 from December's 3.7 percent.

Despite slowing inflation, analysts expected the central bank to keep the key two-week repo rate unchanged at 4.75 percent at the monthly monetary policy meeting on March 27.

The favourable inflation outlook and strong crown would enable the NBS to cut rates later in 2007, said Miroslav Frayer, an analyst at Komercni Banka in Prague.

But economists did not expect the bank to rush with monetary policy easing given risks that could arise from oil prices.

"We maintain our base scenario of a decline in Slovak rates towards the ECB rate only in the second half of the year, in case of higher certainty of meeting the Maastricht criterion," Slovenska Sporitelna analysts said in a market note.

The NBS sees annual inflation at 1.5 percent at the end of 2007, and it expects to meet the euro adoption condition in spring 2008 when Slovakia will be assessed for euro zone entry.

The market will get some clues about possible domestic inflation risks from the release of detailed 2006 gross domestic product data on March 6. Preliminary figures showed real GDP growth 9.5 of percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Analysts expected GDP data to show rising role of productivity growth and exports behind Slovakia's economic expansion, and they did not see dangerous demand-led inflation pressures stemming from fast GDP growth.

** For table with results of the Reuters poll click on [nL05503523]