INSTANT VIEW 4-Slovak Q4 GDP tops earlier flash estimate

    BRATISLAVA, March 6 (Reuters) - The Slovak economy grew by a 
real 9.6 percent, year-on-year, in the fourth quarter, the 
Slovak Statistics Office said on Tuesday. 
  
KEY POINTS: 
 SLOVAK REAL GDP          Q4/06     Q3/06       Q4/05      FY/06 
 (pct change yr/yr)       +9.6      +9.8        +7.5       +8.3 
 (Full GDP table...................[ID:nPRG000255) 
- The fourth-quarter GDP figure is slightly above the statistics 
office's flash estimate of 9.5 percent reported last month. 
- The Statistics Office says it sees first half 2007 GDP growth 
at 8.5 percent year-on-year. 
- End-June 2007 headline CPI is seen at 2.6 percent 
year-on-year. 
 
ANALYST COMMENTS: 
    SILVIA CECHOVICOVA, ANALYST, CSOB, BRATISLAVA 
    "The figure is slightly higher than expected. The main 
contribution came from net exports, which is positive as 
economic growth is led mainly by non-inflationary factors. 
    "Household consumption growth slowed slightly, so economic 
growth is balanced quite well. The contribution of net exports 
will rise further this year. 
    "Growth of 8.3 percent is the biggest growth in Slovak 
history. The Slovak economy is growing at the fastest pace among 
the Visegrad four (central European) states. 
    "We estimate that growth will accelerate slightly this year 
to 8.6 percent, with net exports as the main contributor." 
     
    LUCIA STEKLACOVA, SENIOR ANALYST, ING BANK, BRATISLAVA 
    "There were no big surprises. The main message is that 
exports and foreign demand are becoming the key factors behind 
economic growth. This is in line with expectations that net 
exports will be the main driver of growth this year. 
    "Household consumption remained above 6 percent, and we do 
not see any major implications for monetary policy. We still 
expect room for a policy easing in the second half of the year." 
     
    MIROSLAV PLOJHAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CITIBANK, PRAGUE 
    "There was quite a strong rise in foreign trade which is 
positive. It indicates that a shift from domestic demand-driven 
growth to a more balanced one is partly coming. 
    "On the other hand, household consumption is still strong. 
Inflation risks are still present. 
    "Monetary policy easing is coming closer, but it is not a 
question for this month. The first interest rate cut in Slovakia 
should come in four or five months, so the differential against 
the euro zone could be brought to zero in one year or a year and 
a half." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- The crown  jumped to 34.250 early on Tuesday, from 
34.410 late on Monday, before easing slightly back to 34.300 as 
of 0825 GMT. Traders said the crown firmed mainly because of 
inflow of capital to central European markets. 
 
BACKGROUND 
- The Slovak economy has been showing the highest growth rates 
among the four largest new EU members from central Europe over 
the past few years.  
- GDP growth has been helped by reviving domestic demand as 
households consumption rises after years of belt-tightening 
reforms. 
- Investments have also increased in the past year, mainly 
thanks to large project such as car factories of French PSA 
Peugeot  and South Korean Kia Motors . 
- The central bank does not consider fast GDP rise as major 
danger to inflation as economic growth appears to be driven by 
rising productivity and exports. 
     
 LINKS: 
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can 
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website: 
    http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm 
 
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on...... 
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............ 
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts...... 
 
- Stories on Slovak currency moves........................[SKK/] 
- Slovak speed money guide .............................. 
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices ................. 
- Slovak forward money market rates ....................