INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Jan trade surplus below forecast

    PRAGUE, March 7 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance 
posted a 10.96 billion crown ($511 million) monthly surplus in 
January, smaller than the market had expected after a 11.99 
billion crown surplus in the same month a year earlier. 
    For the whole of last year, the trade balance showed a 
cumulative revised surplus of 44.39 billion crowns, lower than 
the previously reported 47.27 billion crowns. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(in bln CZK)           Jan        Dec           Jan fcast 
 balance              10.96     -2.85 (-3.25)    14.0 
(nominal y/y change in pct) 
 exports              13.8       n/a  (12.5)       n/a 
 imports              15.5       n/a  (11.7)       n/a 
(brackets denote previously reported data) 
 
 (For full table of trade data, click on........[ID:nPRA001181]) 
 
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports 
rose 1.4 percent in January from December while imports rise 6.4 
percent month-on-month. 
- Surplus in the category of machinery and transport equipment 
segment drop by 1.4 billion crowns year-on-year, the first 
monthly fall since March 2004. Surplus in trade with 
semi-finished goods also drops. 
- Deficit in trade with mineral fuels down by 1.4 billion crowns 
year-on-year. 
- In euro terms, exports rise 17.4 percent and imports by 19.2 
percent year-on-year in January, outpacing the growth rates in 
local currency terms because of a firming in the crown. 
- January was the first month since July 2006 when import growth 
outpaced the expansion of exports. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT, PRAGUE: 
    "The January foreign trade surplus was a bit lower than what 
the market expected. However, we do not see the result as a 
surprise, as the January 2006 surplus in trade with machinery 
and transport equipment recorded a really robust surplus, which 
was very difficult to be surpassed in January 2007. 
    "This year we are really behind the January 2006 result in 
that category.  
    "We evaluate the trade data as positive, although below 
market expectations. The January foreign trade surplus is strong 
and we also like the dynamics of overall export and import 
growth." 
     
    VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING WHOLESALE BANKING, 
PRAGUE: 
    "The development is connected with a revival of import 
dynamics driven by rising domestic investment demand. It is 
apparent that the favourable effect of a previous rise in export 
capacities on the foreign trade balance in the past years has 
temporarily been exhausted." 
     
    PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB, PRAGUE: 
    "The result is worse than we had expected due to the high 
growth of imports and slower exports of machinery and vehicles. 
For the market it may mean a cooling of optimism with regards to 
the expected development of the trade balance this year. The 
crown will not follow the result much, activity on the core 
markets will outweigh (the data)." 
     
MARKET REACTION: 
    Crown stands unchanged at 28.150 to the euro . 
     
BACKGROUND: 
- Market expectations before release              [ID:nL0578676] 
- Slovak Dec trade figures                       [ID:nL09567959] 
- Polish trade in Dec                            [ID:nL12845793] 
- Hungary's Dec trade data                       [ID:nL08219085] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001176] 
                                                 [ID:nL01449456] 
 
- For further details on January foreign trade and other past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on        [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 ((Writing by Jan Lopatka; prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters 
Messaging: jan.lopatka.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 
477)) 
 ($1=21.45 Czech Crown) 
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/TRADE