INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Jan industry output jumps, beats fcast

...robust pace of growth after a slowdown to  
3.0 percent in the previous month, data showed on Tuesday. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(brackets denote previously reported data) 
(y/y change in pct)      Jan      Dec              Dec forecast 
 Industrial output       9.8      3.0               6.0 
 Industrial sales       11.0      4.9               n/a 
 
 (Full table of data............................[ID:nPRA001195]) 
 
- Seasonally-adjusted output jumps 2.3 percent month-on-month. 
- Adjusted for seasonal factors, output rises 8.9 percent 
year-on-year. 
- Vehicle production up 10.7 percent, which contributed 2.4 
percentage points to the industrial output growth. 
- Production of electrical and optical equipment rises 16.4 
percent to add 1.9 percentage points to the overall growth. 
- Production of rubber and plastics jumps 27.9 percent, adding a 
further 1.5 percentage points to the headline growth number. 
- On the other hand, electricity, gas and water production and 
distribution falls 5.3 percent, subtracting half a percentage 
point from the overall growth figure. 
- Direct exports sales, accounting for about half of sales in 
the entire industrial sector, up 17.6 percent in real terms, 
slowing from a 9.6 percent rise a month earlier. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    INFORMA GLOBAL MARKETS, LONDON 
     "The Czech economy continues to astound with strong rates 
of productivity against reasonably benign price pressures. We 
expect the favourable growth outlook will ensure the crown 
remains well supported and continues its appreciation trend." 
     
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE 
    "The January industrial performance surprised both us and 
the market. 
    "The industrial sector is mainly driven by strong foreign 
demand and exports. Adding to that is domestic investment 
activity. 
    "Orders statistics signal that the growth dynamics should be 
sustained in the coming months." 
 
    ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "Czech industry has grown for the 53rd consecutive month. 
    "Cars and electronics production still dominate domestic 
industrial output. This year, we expect a slowdown in growth to 
7 percent." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown at 28.230 per euro  by 0817 GMT, flat from 
opening levels. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Jan foreign trade figures......................[ID:nL06520638] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001176] 
                                 [ID:nPRA001190] [ID:nL01449456] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on January output and sales numbers and 
past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech 
Statistical Bureau's Website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
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- Czech money guide                                       
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- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/INDUSTRY