INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Jan c/a balance shows surprise surplus

...revised 14.91 billion crown gap a 
month earlier, data showed on Wednesday. 
    The 12-month rolling deficit narrowed marginally to 133 
billion crowns, or 4.2 percent of last year's gross domestic 
product (GDP) according to Reuters' calculations, from 134 
billion crowns a month earlier. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(CZK billions)           Jan         Dec           Jan forecast 
Current Account           5.49      -14.91          -0.70 
Financial Account       -15.21        6.58           n/a 
Net Direct Investment   -12.82       20.83           n/a 
 
 (For full table, double click on..................[nPRA001198]) 
 
- The monthly surplus is mainly due to a 11.6 billion crown 
surplus in the balance of foreign trade in both goods and 
services, following a 5 billion crown deficit in December. 
- Net foreign direct investment inflows total 12.7 billion 
crowns, which includes 6.2 bilion crowns in reinvested profits. 
- Portfolio investments show a net 12.8 billion crown outflow, 
mainly due to sales of local currency government bonds and 
equties by foreign investors. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    MARTIN BLUM, HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, UNICREDIT, 
VIENNA 
    "The headline figure looks good enough to leave negative 
carry EUR/CZK moving south against the current risk appetite 
backdrop, though January portfolio outflows underline that when 
risk appetite stabilises EUR/CZK upside is likely to 
re-establish." 
     
    PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB BANK, PRAGUE 
    "The current account ended up much better than was expected, 
particularly due to a lower deficit on the income balance. 
January saw lower reinvested profits and dividends compared with 
a year ago. 
    "This is good news for the crown but the market will soon 
forget about it and switch its attention to core and regional 
markets." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown at 28.157 per euro  by 0914 GMT, unchanged from 
levels seen before the data release but slightly higher on the 
day. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Analyst expectations before data release        [ID:nL0578676] 
- Czech Jan foreign trade figures                [ID:nL06520638] 
- Polish Dec C/A                                 [ID:nL16528975] 
- Slovak Dec C/A gap                             [ID:nL27355189] 
- Hungary's Q3 C/A gap                           [ID:nL29754016] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001176] 
                                 [ID:nL01449456] [ID:nPRA001190] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on January of payments numbers and past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National 
Bank's website: 
    http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/ 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
 ($1=21.41 Czech Crown) 
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/BALANCE