INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech Feb trade surplus well above forecast

...three times larger than the market expected 
after a 4.84 billion crown surplus in Fenruary 2006. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(in bln CZK)           Feb        Jan        Feb fcast 
 balance              13.61      10.96         5.1 
(nominal y/y change in pct) 
 exports              19.5       13.8          n/a 
 imports              14.5       15.5          n/a 
 
 (For full table of trade data, click on........[ID:nPRA001232]) 
 
- The February monthly surplus is the largest ever. 
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports 
rise 0.8 percent in February from January while imports dip 1.2 
percent month-on-month. 
- A surplus in the category of machinery and transport equipment 
segment rises by 3.4 billion crowns year-on-year following a 
drop in the previous month. Exports in this area rise 20.2 
percent, while imports are up 22.7 percent. 
- In euro terms, exports rise 20.3 percent and imports by 15.2 
percent year-on-year in February, outpacing the growth rates in 
local currency terms because of a firming in the crown. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE  
    "The February trade result exceeded even the most optimistic 
estimate on the market. Exports didn't just hold their dynamics, 
they raised them even more." 
     
    PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB, PRAGUE 
    "This is an excellent, as well as a record, result which 
significantly exceeded our expectations. 
    "This is very good news for the market, which shows that the 
economy is still doing very well. 
    "The crown may yield from that for a while, but external 
factors will prevail over time. The central bank does not need 
to react." 
  
    ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "This is the highest result on record. The 19.5 percent 
export growth is an excellent result. The main credit goes to, 
what else, but cars and electronics. 
    "We expect that higher oil prices will affect the trade 
balance negatively mainly in March." 
  
MARKET REACTION: 
    The crown firms to 27.97 to the euro  from 27.997 
ahead of the data. 
  
BACKGROUND: 
- Market expectations before release              [ID:nL2940601] 
- Slovak Jan trade figures                       [ID:nL14299493] 
- Polish trade in Jan                            [ID:nWAR005477] 
- Hungary's Jan trade data                       [ID:nBUD001915] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001222] 
                                                 [ID:nL29598110] 
 
- For further details on February foreign trade and other past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on        [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates