ANALYSIS-Czech PM struggling to keep coalition together

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PRAGUE, April 10 (Reuters) - Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek is battling to keep his centre-right coalition government afloat just months into its mandate, but even if he succeeds now there are doubts over its long-term survival.

He currently faces a growing spat between his two coalition partners and must also contend with dissent from within his own party.

Political analyst Bohumil Dolezal said both conflicts showed the coalition would ultimately fail:

"Once the cabinet clears one deadly threat, immediately there is another one. And that will prevail until the moment when it finally falls."

Topolanek's two coalition partners, the Christian Democrats and the Green party, are at loggerheads over allegations of bribe-taking by the Christian Democrat leader.

At the same time, an influential deputy from Topolanek's own Civic Democrats is threatening to vote against a fiscal reform plan the prime minister has staked his cabinet's fate on.

Christian Democrat chief and Deputy Prime Minister Jiri Cunek has been under pressure to quit due to police charges of corruption and for comments he made on the Gypsy minority which the media and other politicians labelled as xenophobic.

But Cunek said he has done nothing wrong and steadfastly refuses to go, adding that his dismissal would effectively end the coalition. The Greens have said they may quit if he stays.

Topolanek cannot afford to lose either the Christian Democrats or the Greens. The government can muster just 100 votes in the 200-seat lower house of parliament.

"The Christian Democrats should call on Cunek to leave," political analyst Petr Just said, adding the issue threatens the government.

Topolanek has so far been reluctant to sack Cunek in the hope, say some analysts, that Cunek will step aside. However, the prime minister has sharpened his rhetoric amid intensifying threats by the Greens to leave if Cunek holds on.

"I hope the Christian Democrats understand that the situation is serious, that it destabilises the coalition," Topolanek said on the weekend in an interview with the daily Mlada Fronta Dnes.

CUNEK SUPPORT?

All three ruling parties have a strong interest in keeping the government afloat, given it took seven months to form an administration after last June's election which failed to deliver an outright majority to any one party.

The Christian Democrat leadership will discuss Cunek's fate at a meeting late on Tuesday.

Previous meetings have always backed him, but last week, senior party member Pavel Severa said Cunek should go. Defence Minister Vlasta Parkanova, also a party member, has said she would quit if she were in a similar situation.

If the government did fall over Cunek it would not necessarily trigger another election, said Dolezal.

"Supporters of a grand coalition (of the Civic Democrats and leftist opposition Social Democrats) would come forward rather than there be an early election," he wrote on his Web site.

Topolanek is juggling the Cunek affair while opposition grows against government reforms announced last week, aimed at cutting the budget deficit by lowering direct taxes, raising the sales tax and slashing social spending.

Vlastimil Tlusty, an influential party member who was briefly a finance minister last year but lost his spot in Topolanek's new cabinet appointed in January, has threatened to block the proposed package in parliament.

The government has said it would try trigger an early election if the package fails to clear parliament by autumn.

Keywords: CZECH POLITICS/