FACTBOX-Results of April EU and EMU expansion survey

...euro and when the EU may admit more new 
members. 
    Following is a summary of the results of the survey, taken 
April 10 to 16, which can also be found on . 
    For analysis of the results, double-click on 
[EMU/MEMS1] [EMU/MEMS2]. 
     
    1. In what year do you expect the following countries to 
enter Europe's monetary union (ie formally adopt the euro)? 
  
              Median   Mean   Mode   Maximum   Minimum  F'casts 
 Bulgaria     2012     2012   2012    2017      2010     30 
 Cyprus       2008     2008   2008    2009      2008     24 
 Czech R      2012     2012   2012    2014      2008     34 
 Estonia      2010     2010   2010    2012      2008     29 
 Hungary      2014     2014   2014    2015      2011     34 
 Latvia       2012     2012   2010    2014      2009     29 
 Lithuania    2010     2010   2010    2013      2008     29 
 Malta        2008     2008   2008    2010      2008     24 
 Poland       2012     2012   2012    2014      2011     34 
 Romania      2014     2014   2014    2017      2011     30 
 Slovakia     2009     2009   2009    2012      2009     34 
  
    2. Which ERM-2 countries do you expect to revalue/devalue 
their currencies in the next 12 months? 
  
            NO CHANGE     REVALUE     DEVALUE 
 Cyprus       13            1           1 
 Estonia      19            0           1 
 Latvia       13            0           7 
 Lithuania    17            0           2 
 Malta        14            1           0 
 Slovakia     11           13           1 
   
    3. Which of the following are the biggest hurdles faced by 
EU countries on the road to euro adoption: controlling 
inflation, controlling budget deficits, reducing public debt, 
stabilising domestic currencies? 
 (table shows count, some economists selected more than one) 
  
              Control     Control budget  Cut public  Stabilise 
              inflation   deficits        debt        currencies 
 Bulgaria       23          3               0           2 
 Cyprus          3          2              10           0 
 Czech R         3         24               0           4 
 Estonia        24          0               0           0 
 Hungary        13         29              14           5 
 Latvia         25          0               0           6 
 Lithuania      25          0               0           1 
 Malta           3          5               9           0 
 Poland          6         26               1           2 
 Romania        21         14               1           4 
 Slovakia       11         13               0          11 
  
    4. In what year do you expect the following currencies to 
enter the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism? 
  
                   Median    Mean   Mode   Max   Min   F'casts 
 Polish zloty       2010     2010   2010   2012  2009   29 
 Hungarian forint   2011     2011   2011   2012  2008   28 
 Czech crown        2010     2009   2010   2012  2007   30 
 Romanian leu       2011     2011   2012   2014  2009   27 
 Bulgarian leu      2008     2009   2007   2014  2007   27 
  
 5. In what year do you expect the following countries to join 
the European Union? 
                Median    Mean   Mode   Max   Min   F'casts 
 Croatia         2010     2010   2010   2013  2009   29 
 Serbia          2015     2015   2015   2020  2012   26 
 Bosnia          2015     2016   2015   2030  2012   24 
 Montenegro      2015     2015   2012   2020  2012   24 
 Albania         2015     2017   2015   2030  2012   21 
 Turkey          2019     2018   2020   2025  2014   23 
  
    6a. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that the 
EU will suspend negotiations with Turkey before they are 
finished? 
    The median of 28 numeric forecasts was 25 pct. The range was 
10 to 70 pct. Three participants said Turkey will never join the 
EU. 
  
    6b. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that 
Turkey pulls out of the membership talks before they are 
complete? 
    The median of 28 forecasts was 25 percent. The range was 0 
to 60 percent. 
     
    Contributors to the survey were:  
ABN AMRO; Allianz Dresdner; Banca Intesa; Bayerische Landesbank; 
Bear Stearns; BNP Paribas; Calyon; Ceska Sporitelna; Citigroup; 
Cominvest Asset Mgt; CSOB; Deutsche Bank; DIW; Dresdner 
Kleinwort; DZ Bank; Finans Invest; Fitch Ratings; Global 
Insight; Helaba; HSBC; HVB Bank Czech Republic; ING Financial 
Markets; Institute of Public Affairs; JP Morgan; KBC Asset Mgt; 
Kingston University; Kopint-Tarki; Morgan Stanley; Nordea; 
Oppenheim Research ; Raiffeisen Bank Romania; RZB; Societe 
Generale; Standard Bank; Standard & Poor's; Tera Stock Brokers; 
UBS; Unicredit MIB. 
 (Table compiled by Bangalore Polling Unit) 
  
  Keywords: EUROPE POLL FACTBOX