RPT-HIGHLIGHTS-Czech central bank monthly news conference

27.04.2007 | , Reuters
Zpravodajství ČTK


perex-img Zdroj: Finance.cz

(Repeats story published late on Thursday)...

...

PRAGUE, April 26 (Reuters) - The following are selected comments by Czech central bank (CNB) Governor Zdenek Tuma at the bank's monthly news conference on Thursday following a decision to keep interest rates on hold for a seventh consecutive month.

For a news report on the decision, click on [ID:L26624395].

-- Latest comments

ON OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES EMBEDDED IN INFLATION FORECAST:

"Similarly to the previous forecast, (the updated one) is still consistent with a gradual rise in nominal interest rates. The difference is that the previous prediction assumed stability (in interest rates) for some time, here we are rather stressing the gradual rise in nominal interest rates over the entire forecast horizon.

"The fact that the word 'stability' has been dropped out does not mean that I will be specific as far as the timing (of interest rate increases) is concerned."

ON INFLATION OUTLOOK:

"Compared with the January prediction, both inflation and (gross domestic product) growth are slightly higher. It still holds that inflation is shifting relatively significantly higher mainly due to changes to indirect taxes and regulated prices.

"But when excluding the primary impact of indirect tax changes, then the inflation trajectory looks quite significantly different and is very consistent with our target for inflation."

ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK:

"From the point of view of GDP, one note about the structure of growth, which is changing slightly: The weight of household consumption is growing and it is expected to post faster growth in both years (of 2007 and 2008), particularly in 2007."

TOMAS HOLUB, HEAD OF CNB'S MONETARY AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT, AT THE SAME NEWS CONFERENCE ON THE CROWN OUTLOOK:

"The forecast includes an exchange rate trajectory, which is roughly stable around current levels for the rest of this year and a slightly appreciation trend only resumes during 2008."

-- Governor's previous comments

ON INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK:

"It seems to me that at least among some members of the bank board, and I dare to say among most of them, now has a prevailing opinion that it is becoming more likely that the next move in interest rates will be upwards.

"This is a certain shift when we look at the previous months when we had been counting on (interest rate) stability in the next months and had been saying that we were rather symmetric about the risks ... and that we could have imagined a (rate) move in either direction.

"But as far as the timing (of any rate increase) is concerned, I am not able to say when this move will come."

ON THE UPDATED INFLATION FORECAST:

"A change that is worth pointing out is ... that the real economy will be pro-inflationary in both years (2007 and 2008).

"If we adjust (the inflation forecast) for the primary effects (of tax changes), inflation is seen moving rather in the lower half of the tolerance range (of the 3 percent target)."

"The primary effects have been exempted when setting policy ... so there is no change to policy conduct in that respect."

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