POLL-Czech CPI seen returning to c.bank target in April

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* When: May 10, 0700 GMT

* Consumer prices seen up 0.4 percent month-on-month, 2.2 percent year-on-year. End-April unemployment rate seen at 6.9 percent.

Czech inflation probably rose to a 7-month high and returned to the central bank's target in April, a Reuters poll showed, confirming a resurgence of price growth which could spur an interest rate rise as early as this month.

The consumer price index (CPI), a broad gauge of inflation targeted by the central bank (CNB), is expected to show a rise of 0.4 percent in April from March, according to the median forecast of 14 analysts in the poll.

This would take the annual inflation rate to 2.2 percent from 1.9 percent in March, as food and fuel prices and some regulated costs such as tobacco have probably edged up to extend their recent rises, analysts said.

The Czech crown's firming to record highs around 27.400 to the euro in late 2006 has helped keep inflation below the CNB's tolerance range of one percentage point either side of the 3 percent goal since October last year.

The inflation data is due for release on May 10, along with end-April unemployment numbers.

The analysts' median forecast was for the jobless rate to drop to 6.9 percent of workforce -- the lowest level on record -- from March's 7.3 percent, as the booming economy reduces the pool of available labour.

Economists said the rising employment and other data have heightened the risk that household demand would spur inflation and require an imminent increase in the CNB's policy rate from the current 2.5 percent, which is the lowest in the European Union.

"Economic data we are due to receive in the coming weeks will be pro-inflationary and our guess is that if the crown remains stable around current levels, an interest rate rise will come already in May," said Jiri Skop, analyst at Komercni Banka.

Other economic data releases due out this month, including retail sales and industrial output, are expected to confirm the economy was sustaining a robust growth pace after expanding at a record 6.1 percent clip in both 2005 and 2006, analysts said.

Investors have been betting the CNB will resume policy tightening with a 25 basis point interest rate increase by July, having paused since raising the cost of credit by 75 basis points between October 2005 and September 2006.

The crown hovered around 28.150 to the euro on Wednesday.

- OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS: [nL02664655]

- SUMMARY OF COMMENTS BY CNB POLICYMAKERS: [ID:nnL26200293]

Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/INFLATION

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]