POLL-Slovak GDP seen jumping to record 10.5 pct in Q1

...Slovakia's economic growth 
probably accelerated to a record high in the first quarter of 
2007 as exports from the key car industry picked up speed, a 
Reuters poll showed on Thursday. 
    The median of 12 analyst forecasts showed real gross 
domestic product growth of 10.5 percent for the first three 
months of 2007, compared with a 9.6 percent rise in the final 
quarter of last year. 
    "We will probably see the highest GDP number in Slovak 
history," said Tatra Banka analyst Juraj Valachy. 
    The Statistics Office will publish the flash GDP estimate 
next Tuesday. The preliminary data release will not include any 
details, but analysts expected the growth structure to be more 
balanced after domestic demand was dominant in previous years. 
    "Key drivers will be big positive improvement in net 
exports, in addition to ongoing robust domestic spending," said 
Raffaella Tenconi, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. 
    Slovakia has been showing one of the fastest growth rates in 
the European Union in the past two years, and the full-year 
expansion of 8.3 percent in 2006 placed it among the fastest 
growing economies in the world. 
    Analysts forecast full-year GDP growth of 9.0 percent in 
2007, above the finance ministry prediction of 8.1 percent. 
    Growth has been picking up speed thanks to investments in 
the automotive industry, where new car assembly plants of French 
PSA Peugeot Citroen  and South Korea's Kia Motors 
 are raising output and boosting exports. 
    Production in the car sector rose by a record 126.2 percent 
annually, in January, and by a scarcely less stratospheric 101.2 
and 83.3 percent respectively in February and March. 
    Analysts said double-digit GDP growth would not be an 
inflation risk, and they did not expect the central bank to cool 
off the economy through hikes in interest rate. 
    "There do not seem to be demand-led inflation pressures and 
risks of economic overheating, because the main factors (behind 
growth) are new export capacities, lower base and transformation 
of past investments," said CSOB bank analyst Marek Gabris. 
    The central bank cut the main two-week repo rate by 25 basis 
points in both March and April, to a current 4.25 percent, and 
analysts polled by Reuters said a favourable inflation outlook 
would give room for at least one more similar reduction this 
year. 
     
   
  Keywords: SLOVAKIA GDP/POLL 
    

[BRATISLAVA/Reuters/Finance.cz]