EARNINGS POLL-Power firm CEZ's Q1 net seen up 21 pct

...expected to jump 21.1 percent in the first 
quarter on higher electricity prices and despite a mild winter 
that limited demand for heating, a Reuters poll showed on 
Monday. 
    The average forecast in a Reuters survey of 11 analysts was 
net profit of 12.09 billion crowns for the first quarter, 
traditionally the strongest part of the year. 
    Sales were seen on average at 46.61 billion crowns, up 12.2 
percent year-on-year. 
    "Sales growth will be driven by higher power prices (16.9 
percent wholesale price rise) year on year, consolidation of 
acquisitions, as well as CEZ's higher exports and regional power 
trading," said Lukas Dufek, an analyst at Komercni Banka. 
    The average forecast for earnings before interest, tax, 
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was 22.61 billion crowns, 
up 10.9 percent year-on-year. 
    Sal.Oppenheim analysts said they expected the mild winter, 
some 0.6 billion crowns in increased operating costs and an 
outage of Temelin nuclear power station weighing on EBITDA. 
    The company has been on an acquisition trail to expand in 
central and south-eastern Europe. Unlike a year ago, the 
first-quarter results will include Polish plants Elcho and 
Skawina, and a Bulgarian plant in Varna. 
    This year's results will not include any significant gain 
from the sale of carbon dioxide emission allowances, said BH 
Securities analyst Petr Hlinomaz, adding that in the first 
quarter of 2006, CEZ made a net profit of 615 million crowns on 
the permits. 
    CEZ stock reached an all-time high last week on the outlook 
for further electricity price growth and a an up to 10 percent 
share buyback which begun last month. 
    The company, with a market capitalisation of $30.5 billion, 
is 68 percent state owned, but the government has agreed to sell 
a 7 percent stake in the capital markets to fund road building. 
    Sal. Oppenheim said management may raise its full-year 
EBITDA guidance, from the current forecast of a 10 percent rise 
to 70.9 billion crowns. 
     
 Consolidated figures in billions of crowns:   
Q1/07                Average   Median      Range     Q1 2006 
Sales                 46.61    46.10    43.84-49.72    41.55 
Core profit (EBITDA)  22.61    22.43    21.36-23.98    20.40 
Oper profit (EBIT)    16.87    16.74    15.70-18.39    14.82 
Net profit            12.09    12.20    11.28-12.78     9.99 
    NOTE - The following equity houses took part in the poll: 
Atlantik FT, BH Securities, CA IB Securities, Cyrrus, Deutsche 
Bank, Erste Bank/Ceska Sporitelna, KBC/Patria Finance, Komercni 
Banka, Raiffeisenbank, Sal.Oppenheim, Wood&Company. 
 

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]