INSTANT VIEW 3-Slovak prelim Q1 GDP below forecast

...gross 
domestic product (GDP) data. 
 
KEY POINTS 
 GDP                  Q1/07 (estimate)   Q4/06     Q1/07 fcast 
 (pct change y/y)        +8.9            +9.6        +10.5 
 
- The Statistics Office does not release detailed data in its 
flash GDP estimate. 
- First quarter GDP in nominal prices totalled 414.3 billion 
crowns ($16.68 billion). 
  
STATISTICS OFFICE COMMENT: 
    "On the consumption side, gross domestic product growth was 
influenced mainly by continued foreign demand, alongside 
persisting growth in domestic demand." 
     
ANALYSTS COMMENTS: 
    SILVIA CECHOVICOVA, ANALYST, CSOB BANK, BRATISLAVA 
    "It is still very fast growth, although it lagged 
expectations. The dynamics of one of the items may have been 
slower, possibly in consumption. It is possible that 
acceleration of growth was only delayed, and that we will see 
faster growth in the second quarter. 
    "The initial market reaction was negative, but I do not 
expect a significant crown weakening as the market will 
acknowledge that the growth number is still high." 
     
    LUCIA STEKLACOVA, SENIOR ANALYST, ING BANK, BRATISLAVA 
    "It is a surprising number becuase we had expected the 
economy to have accelerated, especially in the first quarter. 
But we have to wait for the structure of growth to be published 
in June. 
    "According to the (statistics office) comment, we think that 
exports were the main driver of growth. We can expect a negative 
market reaction because the difference from forecasts was 
significant." 
     
CROWN REACTION: 
    The Slovak crown weakened after GDP data, easing to 33.600 
per euro  as of 0705 GMT, from 33.555 earlier in the 
session. 
     
BACKGROUND 
 - The flash GDP estimate was a disappointment for markets as 
analysts predicted record fast economic growth in the first 
quarter. 
 - The Slovak economy has been showing one of the highest growth 
rates in the European Union in the past few years. 
- GDP growth has been helped by car sector's rising export 
volume and solid domestic demand as households consumption rises 
after years of belt-tightening reforms. 
- Investments have also increased in the past year, mainly 
thanks to large project such as car factories of French PSA 
Peugeot  and South Korean Kia Motors . 
     
LINKS: 
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can 
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website: 
http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm  
     
- For LIVE Slovak economic data releases, click on...... 
- Schedule of upcoming indicator releases............ 
- Summary of short-term economic data forecasts...... 
 
- Stories on Slovak currency moves........................[SKK/] 
- Slovak speed money guide .............................. 
- Slovak benchmark state bond prices ................. 
- Slovak forward money market rates .................... 
  

[BRATISLAVA/Reuters/Finance.cz]