TABLE-Czech left catches up with government

...agency survey suggested the current ruling 
coalition would win just 100 seats in the 200-seat lower house, 
with the same number of seats going to the two parliamentary 
leftist parties. 
    This would replicate a stalemate produced by last year's 
election which led to seven months of political haggling over 
the formation of government. 
    The right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS) then formed a cabinet 
with the centrist Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Green 
Party in January, supported by two defectors from the leftist 
Social Democratic Party (CSSD). 
    The poll, including undecided and non-voting respondents, 
showed the coalition would now win 44.4 percent of the vote 
versus a total of 40.2 percent for the opposition Social 
Democrats (CSSD) and the Communists (KSCM). 
    But STEM's model, taking into account factors such as past 
election results and the country's system of awarding seats,  
showed both camps would get the same number of seats. 
    In early April, the government presented a fiscal reforms 
cutting spending and lowering taxes, which leftists say are 
mainly aimed at the rich. The reforms however sparked protests 
within the coalition, and its fate in parliament is uncertain. 
    The government has said it would try provoke early election 
if the reforms fail when presented to parliament over the 
summer. 
     
 DATE    INSTITUTE   ODS    CSSD   KSCM   KDU-CSL  Greens 
 May 17    STEM      28.6   27.6   12.6    6.6       9.2 
 May 9     FI        34.5   32.3   12.2    9.1       7.0 
 April 18  STEM      29.2   24.9   10.9    6.6      11.6 
 April 18  CVVM      35.0   29.0   14.0    8.0      10.5 
 March 28  FI        35.1   26.9   13.0    8.2      11.0 
 March 21  CVVM      34.5   29.0   15.0    9.0       9.0 
 March 14  STEM      32.0   23.7   10.9    7.0      11.1 
 Feb 26    FI        34.7   29.5   13.3    7.3       7.6 
 Feb 21    CVVM      34.5   26.0   15.5    8.0      12.0 
 Feb 15    STEM      31.3   23.4   12.7    7.6      10.3 
 Feb 1     CVVM      37.0   24.5   16.0    8.0      11.5 
 Jan 26    FI        36.5   29.5   14.1    7.3       7.6 
 Jan 16    STEM      32.3   20.9   12.4    7.5      11.1 
 Dec 20    CVVM      38.0   23.5   11.5   11.0      12.0 
 Dec 15    STEM      32.9   20.6   13.1    7.0      11.2 
 Dec 07    FI        35.8   30.9   14.3    6.6       7.2 
 Nov 23    CVVM      41.0   26.0   11.0    7.0      11.0 
 Nov 15    STEM      35.1   20.7   10.9    7.5       9.4 
 Nov 10    FI        41.1   27.7   12.7    6.0       7.1 
 Oct 23    CVVM      36.0   30.5   15.0    6.0       9.5 
 Oct 16    FI        35.9   27.2   13.9    6.9       8.4 
 Oct 15    STEM      32.0   22.7   11.7    6.3      10.5 
 Sept 22   CVVM      37.0   29.5   13.0    8.0      10.0 
 Sept 21   STEM      32.8   26.6   10.0    4.2      10.3 
 Sept 18   FI        36.3   32.0   13.7    6.5       7.3 
 Aug 7     FI        41.0   30.8   12.3    6.3       6.9 
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
June 2-3 election    35.4   32.3   12.8    7.2       6.3 
  
    NOTE. The STEM poll was conducted between May 2 and May 10 
among 1,219 Czechs. 
 The parties are: 
 - Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right wing, 
liberal-conservative 
 - The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist 
 - Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party 
(KDU-CSL) - centrist 
 - The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left 
 - The Greens - environmentalists, centrist. 
   Pollsters: The FI and CVVM results are based on a model 
predicting gains at the poll box, excluding those not willing to 
vote and undecided. 
   STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include 
replies from all respondents including those not willing to 
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of 
the vote at the election. 
  
  Keywords: CZECH POLITICS/POLL  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]