Stats chief regrets Slovak analysts' GDP optimism

...may have hurt the currency, the daily Pravda reported on Monday.

The Statistics Office said last week that real GDP rose by 8.9 percent in the first quarter of 2007, which was a slowdown from 9.6 percent growth in the final quarter of 2006 but still one of the highest growth rates in the European Union.

Analysts in a Reuters poll forecast record-high GDP growth of 10.5 percent in the first quarter, and local media also cited their surveys as forecasting a double digit rise.

Statistics Office Chairwoman, Ludmila Benkovicova, said the forecasts had led to overly optimistic expectations, and that they ended up hurting the crown.

"Had it not been for the atmosphere of great expectations, no one would have perceived the 8.9 percent figure as a disappointment," Benkovicova told Pravda in an interview. "The unrealistic expectations perhaps hurt the economy to some extent, especially the crown exchange rate...In any way, it was an unfortunate situation. Analysts will be more careful in the second half of the year."

The Statistics Office did not publish any breakdown of the preliminary GDP number.

Analysts said the gap with their expectations may have been caused by a weaker contribution of net exports than forecast by the market.

Several analysts contacted by Reuters declined to comment on the Statistics Office's criticism.

The crown weakened after the GDP data were released, but it dropped by only around 0.15 percent on the day as Slovak growth was still strong, dealers said.

Benkovicova, a sociologist, was appointed to her post by the Smer party or Prime Minister Robert Fico in February 2007. Slovak media reported she had advised Fico on public relations before taking the statistics office job.

Keywords: SLOVAKIA ECONOMY/BUREAU

[BRATISLAVA/Reuters/Finance.cz]