POLL-Czech Q1 GDP seen recovering, May CPI at 8-mth high

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* When: June 8, 9 a.m. (0700 GMT)

* Annual GDP growth seen at 6.1 percent; annual inflation at 2.5 percent, jobless rate at 6.5 percent.

Buoyant consumption and a boom in the industrial and construction sectors is likely to have helped spur a mild pick up in Czech economic growth in the first quarter following a gradual slowdown last year, economists forecast in a Reuters poll.

Twelve analysts gave a median forecast of 6.1 percent for first quarter annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP), with their estimates ranging from 5.4 to 7.0 percent.

The GDP numbers are due for publication on June 8, along with May data on consumer prices and unemployment.

Annual inflation was expected to be unchanged from April at 2.5 percent and the jobless rate to fall to a new long-term low of 6.5 percent from 6.8 percent last month, according to median forecasts in the survey.

Growth in one of the biggest central European economies gradually ebbed to 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the peak of 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The slowdown largely reflected a weakening exports expansion as the one-off boost from the launch of a large car making plant petered out. For the whole of 2007, growth is seen cooling to 5.5 percent from record 6.1 percent in both 2006 and 2006.

But analysts said industrial and construction firms boosted their output and exports thanks to unusually warm weather in January-March which, along with record-strong household spending, helped to sustain a robust rate of growth in the overall economy.

"Had there not been a warm winter ... our GDP estimate would have been lower and economic growth would have continued slowing," said Ales Michl, economist at Raiffeisenbank.

The unexpected strength of the economy in early 2007, fuelled by household spending and a consumer credit boom, has been widely expected to prompt the central bank (CNB) to raise interest rates for the first time in eight months this week.

The CNB's policy rate is 2.50 percent, a record 125 basis points below the euro zone equivalent, following increases totalling 75 basis points between October 2005 and September 2006.

Eighteen of the 20 CNB watchers polled by Reuters last week predicted policymakers would raise the rate on Thursday by 25 basis points to a more than 4-year high to tame resurgent inflation.

One saw such a rate rise as likely in either June or July and another said it would come only in July. [CNB/INT]

DETAILS OF GDP FORECASTS........................[nL30457863] SUMMARY OF FORECASTS FOR DATA DUE OUT IN JUNE...[nL30445623]

Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]