INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech retail sales growth slows in April

...expectations, data showed on Monday. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)      April      March       April forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)        8.1       10.5        10.0 
 
(Click on [ID:nPRA001357] for full table of April retail sales) 
 
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and 
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods, 
including foodstuffs. 
- Seasonally-adjusted sales including the auto segment fall by a 
real 0.8 percent month-on-month in April and drop 0.2 percent 
excluding the auto segment. 
- Ex-autos, retail sales up 7.5 percent year-on-year in real and 
seasonally adjusted terms. 
  
 COMMENT 
 PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HVB BANK, PRAGUE 
 "The sales remained robust in the car purchase and repair 
segment as well as in non-food items.  
  "At 8.1 percent year-on-year, retail sales expansion continues 
to look robust. We expect the CNB (central bank) to hike the 
repo rate by July." 
     
 ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
 "The retail sector will show a record growth of around 8 
percent this year, and the April data underlined that. 
 All seems to indicate that this year the convergence with 
western Europe will not go through an appreciation of the 
exchange rate, but rather through higher inflation. We expect 
the central bank to react by raising interest rates in July." 
     
 DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE 
 "Retail sales did not meet expectations, however they indicate 
the continuation of fast growth of consumer demand in the second 
quarter. This leaves on the table the risk of inflation caused 
by fast demand growth, and therefore also thoughts about a 
further rise in interest rates soon. July seems to be the 
probable date of further monetary tightening." 
  
MARKET REACTION 
 Crown stands at 28.566 to the euro  from 28.560 ahead 
of the data. 
     
BACKGROUND: 
- May consumer inflation                         [ID:nL08529664] 
- Czech economic growth stays fast               [ID:nL08216043] 
- April industrial output figures                [ID:nL12369927] 
- Reports on last Czech c.bank rate decision     [ID:nPRA001319] 
                                                 [ID:nL31320495] 
                                                [ID:nL31276683] 
LINKS: 
- For further details on April retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
  Keywords: CZECH RETAIL/