INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech retail sales rise slows as expected in May

...April's 8.1 percent rise, data 
showed on Thursday. 
    The report pointed at robust consumer demand, reinforcing 
market expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate increase 
to 3 percent by the central bank next week to prevent a weak 
crown and buoyant spending from stoking inflation pressures. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)      May        April       May forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)        7.0        8.1         7.5 
 
(Click on [ID:nPRA001401] for full table of May retail sales) 
 
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and 
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods, 
including foodstuffs. 
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales rise by a real 0.8 percent 
month-on-month in May. Excluding the auto segment, the monthly 
gain amounted to 0.6 percent. 
- Ex-autos, retail sales up 7.1 percent year-on-year in real and 
seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, unchanged from April. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    PETR DUFEK, ANALYST, CSOB BANK, PRAGUE 
    "It still holds that private consumption is fuelling 
economic growth, but it has yet to create demand-pull 
inflationary pressures. 
    "For the market, this is peripheral news which should have 
no impact on the crown and yields." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown steady from open at 28.245 per euro . 
Government debt yields flat to slightly higher. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- June consumer inflation                        [ID:nL11564563] 
                                                 [ID:nL11222777] 
- May industrial output figures                  [ID:nL13592187] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRG000403] 
                                 [ID:nL28398864] [ID:nL10648783] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on May retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
  Keywords: CZECH RETAIL/