INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech June C/A gap swells less than mkt expected

...deficit a 
month earlier, data showed on Monday. 
    The 12-month rolling deficit narrowed slightly to 107.5 
billion crowns, or 3.3 percent of last year's gross domestic 
product (GDP) according to Reuters calculations, from 116.7 
billion crowns a month earlier. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(CZK billions)           June         May          June forecast 
Current Account         -13.33       -5.35         -20.00 
Financial Account        11.00       11.32           n/a 
Net Direct Investment     9.58       11.54           n/a 
 
 (For full table, double click on..................[nPRA001437] 
    NOTE. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a monthly 
current account deficit of 20.0 billion crowns ($974.6 million) 
for June  . 
 
- The monthly deficit is mainly due to a 27.6 billion crown 
income balance shortfall caused by payments of dividends and 
estimated reinvested earnings on direct investments. The monthly 
gap shrinks from 14.8 billion in May. 
- Foreign direct investment inflows total 11 billion crowns, 
which the central bank estimated included about 9.6 billion 
crowns in reinvested profits. 
- Portfolio investments show a net 9.4 billion crown outflow. 
The 12-month cumulative outflows have been gradually declining. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE, PRAGUE 
    "The lower than expected deficit could support the crown 
during the period of increased volatility on markets. 
    "For the first half, the deficit should stay around 3.2 
percent of GDP, which is an acceptable level for a fast growing 
economy with strong domestic demand." 
     
    RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT, PRAGUE 
    "The start of the summer was characterised by big outflows 
of dividends, which resulted in large outflows on the current 
account. All in all, it can be said that the overall balance of 
payments developments were unfavourable to the crown. 
    "In the second half of the year, I expect the situation on 
the balance of payments to stabilise and help the crown gain, as 
interest rates will gradually rise and this could spur portfolio 
and other investments." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown barely budged, trading at 28.052 per euro  by 
0827 GMT. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Analyst expectations before data release       [ID:nL01772578] 
- Czech June foreign trade figures               [ID:nL07596428] 
- Polish May C/A                                 [ID:nL13869912] 
- Slovak May C/A gap                             [ID:nPRG000439] 
- Hungary's Q1 C/A gap                           [ID:nL29295028] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001407] 
 [ID:nPRA001420] [ID:nL03817639] [ID:nL26800751] [ID:nL03732730] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on June of payments numbers and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National Bank's 
website: 
    http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/ 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]