INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech retail sales accelerate in June

...data showed on Friday. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)      June        May        June forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)        7.2        7.0         6.5 
 
 (Click on [ID:nPRA001444] for full table of June retail sales) 
 
- The headline, unadjusted figure includes car sales and 
repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer goods, 
including foodstuffs. 
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales rise by a real 0.6 percent 
month-on-month in June. Excluding the auto segment, the monthly 
gain also amounted to 0.6 percent. 
- Ex-autos, retail sales up 6.8 percent year-on-year in real and 
seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, down from May/from 
7.1 percent in May. 
  
    COMMENTARY: 
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE: 
    "The higher-than-expected retail sales rise in June points 
to the still high dynamic of consumer demand, and -- together 
with the inflation outlook, the ever more tight situation on the 
labour market and growing wages -- is an argument for interest 
rate hikes. 
    "Lower inflation, a stronger crown and the turbulence on 
global financial markets speak against an interest rate hike 
already this month. 
    "For the time being, we still expect a rate hike at the end 
of August. If the crown firms further, and/or the situation on 
global financial markets deepens further, our expectation of a 
rate hike will be shifted into the autumn months." 
     
    ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE: 
    "People are still shopping and the retail sales results 
confirm the opinion that central bank rates will go up. 
    "However, amid the ongoing panic, the markets will not be 
interested in the number today. The following development of the 
crown will decide monetarty policy questions." 
     
 MARKET REACTION: 
    Crown trades unchanged after the data at 27.49 to the euro 
. 
     
BACKGROUND: 
- July consumer inflation                        [ID:nL08620278] 
                                 [ID:nPRA001429] [ID:nL08145120] 
- June industrial output figures                 [ID:nL13698020] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nPRA001407] 
 [ID:nPRA001420] [ID:nL03817639] [ID:nL26800751] [ID:nL03732730] 
 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on June retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
  
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/RETAIL  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]