INSTANT VIEW 3-Slovak Q2 GDP revised up from flash estimate

...Tuesday, revising upwards its flash 
estimate of a 9.2 percent rise. 
*****************************************************************KEY POINTS 
 SLOVAK REAL GDP          Q2/07     Q1/07       Q2/06      FY/06 
 (pct change yr/yr)       +9.4      +9.0        +6.7       +8.3 
 (Full GDP table................................[ID:nPRG000482]) 
- The second quarter GDP figure is slightly above the Statistics 
Office's flash estimate of 9.2 percent reported in August. 
- The Statistics Office says it sees full 2007 GDP growth at 8.8 
percent year-on-year. 
- End-2007 headline CPI is seen at 2.3 percent year-on-year. 
- Household consumption remains strong at 7.3 percent growth, 
year-on-year, while government consumption edges up 1.1 
quarter-on-quarter. 
- Inventories show a large change, totalling 13.382 billion 
crowns, compared with a change of 3.079 billion crowns in the 
first quarter of 2007. 
     
    ANALYST COMMENTS: 
    MARIA VALACHYOVA, SENIOR ANALYST, SLOVENSKA SPORITELNA, 
BRATISLAVA 
    "Household consumption was slightly higher than expected. 
This was a slight surprise. From this point of view, it's a 
slightly hawkish signal and confirms the central bank's cautious 
stance. 
    "Final household consumption and net exports were the key 
drivers of growth. We see full-year GDP growth at 8.9 percent 
year-on-year." 
     
    LUCIA STEKLACOVA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING BANK, BRATISLAVA 
    "It may appear that final household consumption is faster, 
but it's not surprising for us. It maintains the trend. But the 
structure of growth does not call for tighter monetary 
conditions. 
    "There is no implication for interest rate settings. We 
expect interest rates to stay steady until the beginning of next 
year. 
    "We see full-year GDP growth at 8.7 percent year-on-year." 
     
    JURAJ VALACHY, ANALYST, TATRA BANKA, BRATISLAVA 
    "Household consumption is very strong. This would halt any 
discussions about an interest rate reduction even if we did not 
go to the euro zone. 
    "Overall growth is very balanced and did not show any reason 
for changes in interest rate settings. We will wait for the ECB 
(European Central Bank), and if the ECB goes above 4.25 percent 
the central bank (NBS) will go up (tighten policy) as well." 
     
    CROWN REACTION 
    The Slovak crown traded sligthly weaker at 33.750 per euro 
 as of 0720 GMT, compared with 33.738 before the 
release. It closed at 33.720 to the euro on Monday. 
     
BACKGROUND 
- The Slovak economy has been showing the highest growth rates 
among the four largest new EU members from central Europe over 
the past few years.  
- GDP growth has been helped by reviving domestic demand as 
households consumption rises after years of belt-tightening 
reforms. 
- Investments have also increased in the past year, mainly 
thanks to large project such as car factories of French PSA 
Peugeot  and South Korean Kia Motors . 
- The central bank does not consider fast GDP rise as major 
danger to inflation as economic growth appears to be driven by 
rising productivity and exports. 
     
 LINKS: 
- For further details on past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can 
click on the Slovak Statistics Office's website: 
    http://wwww.statistics.sk/webdata/english/index2_a.htm 
 
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