TABLE-Czech leftists in the lead, would take power

...if an election took place now, an opinion 
poll showed on Monday. 
    The poll by the private Factum Invenio agency showed the 
Social Democrats together with the far-left Communists would win 
48.3 percent of the vote, ahead of the ODS-led three-party 
governing coalition which would win 46.1 percent. 
    It was the first poll since the 2006 election which showed 
the opposition would win more votes than the coalition. The next 
election is due in 2010. 
    The survey followed two other polls last week which showed 
the Social Democrats overtook the main government party, the 
right-wing Civic Democrats, in ratings, after the government 
pushed controversial tax and welfare reforms through parliament 
in August. 
    The reforms hike the sales tax and healthcare payments for 
all while cutting welfare benefits and personal income taxes, 
mainly for companies and top wage earners. 
     
 DATE    INSTITUTE   ODS    CSSD   KSCM   KDU-CSL  Greens 
 Sept 24   FI        32.2   33.0   15.3    6.8       7.1 
 Sept 19   CVVM      31.0   33.0   14.5    9.0      10.0 
 Sept 17   STEM      27.0   28.7   12.2    7.3       9.1 
 Aug 10    FI        33.8   30.7   13.3    8.8       6.9 
 June 20   CVVM      32.0   32.0   14.5    8.0      10.5 
 June 19   STEM      29.3   27.0   12.5    5.9       9.9 
 June 16   FI        33.5   30.8   12.7    8.8       9.2 
 May 23    CVVM      35.0   29.0   15.5    9.5       9.0 
 May 17    STEM      28.6   27.6   12.6    6.6       9.2 
 May 9     FI        34.5   32.3   12.2    9.1       7.0 
 April 18  STEM      29.2   24.9   10.9    6.6      11.6 
 April 18  CVVM      35.0   29.0   14.0    8.0      10.5 
 March 28  FI        35.1   26.9   13.0    8.2      11.0 
 March 21  CVVM      34.5   29.0   15.0    9.0       9.0 
 March 14  STEM      32.0   23.7   10.9    7.0      11.1 
 Feb 26    FI        34.7   29.5   13.3    7.3       7.6 
 Feb 21    CVVM      34.5   26.0   15.5    8.0      12.0 
 Feb 15    STEM      31.3   23.4   12.7    7.6      10.3 
 Feb 1     CVVM      37.0   24.5   16.0    8.0      11.5 
 Jan 26    FI        36.5   29.5   14.1    7.3       7.6 
 Jan 16    STEM      32.3   20.9   12.4    7.5      11.1 
 Dec 20    CVVM      38.0   23.5   11.5   11.0      12.0 
 Dec 15    STEM      32.9   20.6   13.1    7.0      11.2 
 Dec 07    FI        35.8   30.9   14.3    6.6       7.2 
 Nov 23    CVVM      41.0   26.0   11.0    7.0      11.0 
 Nov 15    STEM      35.1   20.7   10.9    7.5       9.4 
 Nov 10    FI        41.1   27.7   12.7    6.0       7.1 
 Oct 23    CVVM      36.0   30.5   15.0    6.0       9.5 
 Oct 16    FI        35.9   27.2   13.9    6.9       8.4 
 Oct 15    STEM      32.0   22.7   11.7    6.3      10.5 
 Sept 22   CVVM      37.0   29.5   13.0    8.0      10.0 
 Sept 21   STEM      32.8   26.6   10.0    4.2      10.3 
 Sept 18   FI        36.3   32.0   13.7    6.5       7.3 
 Aug 7     FI        41.0   30.8   12.3    6.3       6.9 
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June 2006 election   35.4   32.3   12.8    7.2       6.3 
  
    NOTE. The FI poll was conducted between September 13 and 
September 19 among 961 Czechs eligible to vote. 
 The parties are: 
 - Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right wing, 
liberal-conservative 
 - The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - leftist 
 - Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party 
(KDU-CSL) - centrist 
 - The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left 
 - The Greens - environmentalists, centrist. 
   Pollsters: The FI and CVVM results are based on a model 
predicting gains at the poll box, excluding those not willing to 
vote and undecided. 
   STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include 
replies from all respondents including those not willing to 
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of 
the vote at the election. 
  
  Keywords: CZECH POLITICS/POLL