INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech CPI jumps to near 6-year high in October

...high of 4.0 
percent from 2.8 percent a month earlier. 
    The surge was likely to fuel expectations of a 25 basis 
point interest rate increase as early as this month. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(pct change)          Oct          Sept         Oct forecast 
 month/month          0.6         -0.3          0.4 
 year/year            4.0          2.8          3.8 
 
 CENTRAL BANK FORECAST: The figure comes in at the top end of 
the central bank's forecast which envisaged a 3.6-4.0 percent 
annual rate for October in its projection unveiled last month. 
 
 Details of October inflation data..................[nPRA001597] 
 Details of October jobless data....................[nPRG000577] 
 Details of September industrial output.............[nPRA001598] 
 
- The year-on-year inflation rate is the highest since January 
2002. 
- The monthly gain driven by a sharp rise in food prices, and 
increases in housing and utility prices. 
- Food prices up 2.3 percent month-on-month. 
- Prices for housing and utility services such as water and 
energy supplies rise 0.6 percent month-on-month, mainly on the 
back of a 4.7 percent increase in natural gas prices. 
- Clothing and footwear prices rise 1.2 percent month-on-month 
due to a seasonal increase in winter apparel prices. 
- Fuel prices dip 0.1 percent on average on the month. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    PAVEL SOBISEK, ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT GLOBAL MARKETS, PRAGUE 
    "I think this number seals an interest rate increase this 
month. 
    "However, I do not want to overestimate the surprise. A 
sharp rise in the annual rate had been expected, but the 
surprise lies in the difference of two-tenths of a percentage 
point between the actual figure and expectations of both the 
markets and the central bank. It looks like the biggest part of 
this comes from a faster than expected rise in food prices. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- The central bank has held interest rates steady since hiking 
the key two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent 
 in August. 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL25710600] 
  [ID:nPRA001568] [ID:nPRA001584] [ID:nPRA001585] [ID:n25439215] 
- The central bank (CNB) targets headline inflation which it 
seeks to keep at 3 percent year-on-year, allowing for 
fluctuations by plus/minus one percentage point from this level. 
- The CNB's quarterly prediction sees consumer prices rising 
4.4-5.8 percent year-on-year in September 2008 and 3.1-4.5 
percent in March 2009, consumer inflation net of impact of 
indirect tax changes rising 2.5-3.9 percent year-on-year in 
September 2008 and 2.6-4.0 percent in March 2009. 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on October other past inflation data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-ISC 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 (Reporting by Jan Lopatka, Editing by Alan Crosby)  
  
  Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/INFLATION  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]