INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech Sept C/A gap well under market fcast

...on Tuesday. 
    The 12-month rolling deficit narrowed slightly to 121.4 
billion crowns, or 3.8 percent of last year's gross domestic 
product (GDP) according to Reuters calculations, from 125.57 
billion crowns a month earlier. 
**************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(CZK billions)           Sept         Aug          Sept forecast 
Current Account          -5.82       -32.65        -11.5 
Financial Account         9.50        47.20          n/a 
Net Direct Investment    11.82        11.20          n/a 
 
 (For full table, double click on..................[nPRA001603] 
 
- The monthly deficit is mainly due to a 24.5 billion crown 
income balance shortfall caused by the outflow of dividends and 
estimated reinvested earnings on direct investments. The monthly 
income balance gap shrinks from 37.4 billion in August. 
- Foreign direct investment inflows total 11.8 billion crowns, 
which the central bank estimated included about 10.4 billion 
crowns in reinvested profits. 
- Portfolio investments show a net 9.3 billion crown outflows 
due to equity investments abroad. The net portfolio investment 
outflow total has been gradually rising on an annual basis in 
recent months. 
 
COMMENTARY:  
    HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "The outflow of income and profits from the Czech Republic 
declined compared with August, however it shows a stable 
increase relative to last September. That's also why we expect a 
rise in the current account deficit this year to 3.3 percent of 
GDP from last year's 3.1 percent. For the crown, this kind of 
news is neutral.  
    "However, we see the currently strong levels of the crown as 
overdone and expect a correction towards 27.0 per euro as soon 
as the situation on the euro/dollar calms down." 
 
    JIRI SKOP, ANALYST, KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE 
    "The external balance of the Czech economy should stabilise. 
After a deepening in the current account deficit on the balance 
of payments from 1.6 percent of GDP in 2005 to last year's 3.1 
percent and 3.4 percent in Q2 2007 the situation should 
stabilise around 3.4 percent.  
    "The foreign trade balance will continue to improve, on the 
other hand the income balance will keep worsening because the 
economy is doing well, corporate profits are growing, and thus 
profit repatriation is rising." 
 
     
BACKGROUND: 
- Analyst expectations before data release       [ID:nL30594915] 
- Czech September foreign trade figures           [ID:nL0261687] 
- Polish August C/A                              [ID:nWAR006155] 
- Slovak August C/A gap                          [ID:nPRG000561] 
- Hungary's Q2 C/A gap                           [ID:nL28171388] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL25710600] 
  [ID:nPRA001568] [ID:nPRA001584] [ID:nPRA001585] [ID:n25439215] 
  
LINKS: 
- For further details on September of payments numbers and past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech National 
Bank's website: 
    http://www.cnb.cz/en/statistics/bop_stat/ 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 (Reporting by Marek Petrus) 
  
 ($1=18.20 Czech Crown) 
  Keywords: CZECH BALANCE/  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]