FACTBOX-Scenarios in Slovak coalition crisis

...coalition.

Fico wants minister Miroslav Jurena of junior coalition partner, the centre-left Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), to go following allegations land deals overseen by his department cost the state tens of millions of dollars.

A break-up of the coalition would strip Fico of a parliamentary majority.

Following are possible scenarios of the coalition crisis, which comes as the government tries to step up efforts to secure euro adoption in 2009.

HZDS STAYS

Observers expect Jurena's centre-left Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), to stay in the coalition with Fico's leftist Smer and the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS).

HZDS has little interest in early polls as support for the HZDS has been falling while Smer tops the rankings with over 40 percent popularity.

HZDS LEAVES, CABINET STAYS

If the HZDS leaves, the cabinet will lose parliamentary majority.

Fico would likely try to go on with a minority government together with the Slovak National Party, hoping that the HZDS, or at least some of its deputies, would still support the cabinet. The HZDS has a history of disunity.

He may also try to split the opposition ranks and lure some of the centre-right opposition parties into his government, although analysts see that as a remote option.

HZDS LEAVES, GOVERNMENT FALLS

If HZDS teamed up with the opposition to win a no-confidence vote, Fico's cabinet would fall. Political talks would then start on forming a new administration.

President would ask a leader who can guarantee majority support in parliament to form a new government and seek a confidence vote in the assembly.

If no government wins a confidence vote in six months, the president may call a new election. An early election can also be called if 90 out of the parliament's 150 deputies agree on it.

PARLIAMENT SEATS

Coalition:

* Smer 50 seats

* Slovak National Party (SNS) 19

* Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) 16

Opposition:

* Slovak Democratic

and Christian Union (SDKU) 31 seats

* Ethnic Hungarian coalition (SMK) 20

* Christian-Democratic Movement (KDH) 14

* Opinion polls show that in case of a snap election, the Smer would win 17 extra seats, while all other parties would loose.

EURO IMPLICATIONS

Both the government and opposition support 2009 euro entry, diminishing the threat of a major policy shift.

But analysts say political turbulence could weaken financial discipline in the run-up to euro adoption.

The country, whose economy expanded by 9.4 percent in the third quarter, is expected to meet all nominal euro criteria when it is assessed next spring despite a spike in inflation, but EU officials have said sustainability of low inflation would also be considered. (Compiled by Peter Laca and Martin Dokoupil in Bratislava)

Keywords: SLOVAKIA COALITION/

[Reuters/Finance.cz]