POLL-Slovak Nov inflation seen off 10-mo high, rates flat

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*WHEN: Dec. 14, Dec. 18

*Inflation seen off 10-month highs booked in October, interest rates flat as monetary conditions tight enough

By Martin Santa

Slovak inflation probably fell from a 10-month peak in November on fundamentals, and interest rates will remain steady for an eight month in a row, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

The median forecast of 11 analysts put annual EU-norm inflation rate at 2.2 percent in November, compared with a 10-month high of 2.4 percent seen in October.

On the month, consumer price growth was seen at 0.3 percent, after a 0.7 percent rise in the previous month.

EU-norm inflation is a key yardstick on Slovakia's path to euro adoption in 2009. The Statistics Office will release the data on Dec. 14.

"It (inflation decline) is due to a base effect," said Tatra Banka analyst Juraj Valachy. "Natural gas prices rose by 7 percent a year ago, which did not happen in November (2007)."

Rising food prices lifted inflation from a record low of 1.2 percent seen in both August and July, but the central bank and economists see the country meeting the euro entry criterion with a wide enough margin next spring.

The Slovaks met the inflation criterion for the first time ever in August. It is defined as 1.5 percentage points above the average of the three lowest 12-month inflation rates in the EU.

The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) has made no policy adjustments over the past seven months despite robust economic growth, saying monetary conditions were tight enough, and analysts saw the bank staying put on Dec. 18 as well.

"Monetary policy outlook remains unchanged as external factors are fuelling inflation ... which the NBS cannot influence," said Eduard Hagara, analyst at ING Bank in Bratislava.

The Slovak economy expanded by a record 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter on strong exports and household consumption, but analysts have spotted no signs of overheating so far. (For accompanying table please click on [ID:nL04155671])

Keywords: SLOVAKIA ECONOMY/POLL

[BRATISLAVA/Reuters/Finance.cz]