INSTANT VIEW 3-Czech Oct trade surplus beats forecasts

...exports jumped to 
 record highs. 
************************************************************** 
KEY POINTS: 
(in bln CZK)           Oct         Sept        Oct fcast 
 balance               8.61      13.93 (14.37)    6.3 
(nominal y/y change in pct) 
 exports              13.6       12.3  (11.0)     n/a 
 imports              11.5        9.2   (7.6)     n/a 
 
 (For full table of trade data, click on........[nPRA001642]) 
 
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports 
dipped 2.7 percent in October from September while imports rose 
5.0 percent month-on-month. 
- In euro terms, exports jumped 17.6 percent and imports by 15.4 
percent year-on-year in October, outpacing the rise in local 
currency terms because of a strengthening in the crown. 
- There was a 1.8 billion year-on-year improvement in the 
balance of trade in resources and a 1.6 billion improvement in 
the trade with mineral fuels.  
    There was a 49.3 percent drop in crude oil imports. The 
country's main refinery was shut down for maintenance in 
October. 
- Surplus in the consumer goods category rose by 1.5 billion, in 
machinery and vehicles by 1.4 billion. 
- Rolling 12-month trade surplus reached 77.1 billion, up by 
40.2 billion compared with the previous 12 months. 
     
    COMMENTARY: 
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMY AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE: 
    "The good news is the record turnover of foreign trade ... 
and the continued double-digit export growth. The data so far 
are not showing an impact of the slowing European economy or the 
strong crown. It is too early for that." 
     
    ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE: 
    "This is a good result, a positive surprise. That is thanks 
to record monthly exports.  
    "However, we see risks of a decline in the export growth 
rate next year. We see euro zone GDP slowing down to 1.8 percent 
from this year's 2.6 percent. One percentage point of a slowdown 
in Germany can bring a slowdown of about 0.5 percentage points 
in the Czech Republic." 
     
MARKET REACTION: 
    Crown marginally stronger at 26.303 versus the euro 
 from 26.312 before the data. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Market expectations before release             [ID:nL28651725] 
- Slovak September trade figures                 [ID:nL09391214] 
- Polish trade in September                      [ID:nL13288523] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL29206268] 
                                  [ID:nPRA001631] [ID:n29679528] 
 
- For further details on October foreign trade and other past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on        [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 (Reporting by Jan Lopatka; editing by David Stamp) 
  
 ($1=17.83 Czech Crown) 
  Keywords: CZECH TRADE/  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]