INSTANT VIEW 2-Czech Sept retail sales ex-autos weakest in 2006

    PRAGUE, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Czech retail sales growth slowed 
to a slightly weaker than expected 5.2 percent year-on-year in 
September, but the figures still confirmed this year's revival 
in consumer spending that may spark a rate hike by early 2007. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)      Sept        Aug        Sept forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)       5.2         6.8         6.0 
 
(Click on [ID:nPRA001033] for full table of September retail 
sales) 
 
- The headline, seasonally-unadjusted figure includes car sales 
and repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer 
goods, including foodstuffs. 
- In seasonally unadjusted terms, retail sales net of cars and 
fuel grow 4.6 percent year-on-year, slowing to the weakest rate 
so far this year after a 6.1 percent jump a month earlier. 
- Foodstuffs sales growth slowed to 1.4 percent from the 
previous month's 4.2 percent. 
- Seasonally-adjusted sales including the auto segment rose by a 
real 0.4 percent month-on-month in September and 0.1 percent 
excluding the auto segment. 
- In the auto segment, sales up 6.2 percent year-on-year thanks 
to an 8.9 percent rise in cars sales and repairs. Fuel sales up 
1.9 percent. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    PAVEL MERTLIK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "The fast growth in retail sales shows that household 
consumption is becoming, along with fixed capital creation, the 
key driver of economic growth this year. This is another reason 
for the central bank to gradually raise interest rates. We 
expect the next rate hike by 25 basis points in January 2007." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown barely changed on the day at 28.080 per euro <EURCZK=>. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Oct consumer inflation         [ID:nL08914052] [ID:nL08889199] 
- Sept industrial output figures                 [ID:nL08849213] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL26548848] 
                                                 [ID:nPRA001007] 
LINKS: 
- For further details on September retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ> 
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                <CZKVIEW> 
- Czech money guide                                      <CZK/1> 
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                   <0#CZBMK=> 
- Czech forward money market rates                      <CZKFRA> 
 
 ((Writing by Marek Petrus; Editing by Alan Crosby; 
prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: 
marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 477)) 
  Keywords: ECONOMY CZECH RETAIL