INSTANT VIEW 4-Czech Sept trade surplus beats market fcast

    PRAGUE, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance 
posted a 7.46 billion crown ($339.2 million) surplus in 
September, exceeding market expectations as the monthly export 
volumes reached the second highest in the country's history. 
    The monthly figure marked the best result for September on 
record, according to the available data series from 1996. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(in bln CZK)           Sept       Aug           Sept fcast 
 balance               7.46      -2.07           5.0 
(nominal y/y change in pct) 
 exports               9.4        8.9            n/a 
 imports               8.4        7.1            n/a 
 
 (For full table of trade data, click on........[ID:nPRA001008]) 
 
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports 
rise 1.3 percent in September from August while imports drop 0.7 
percent month-on-month. 
- In euro terms, exports rise by 13.0 percent and imports by 
11.9 percent year-on-year in September, outpacing the growth 
rates in local currency terms because of a firming in the crown. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    MIROSLAV PLOJHAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CITIBANK, PRAGUE 
    "We expect the 12-month cumulative trade surplus -- 
amounting to 42.6 billion crowns (1.4 percent of GDP) in 
September -- will rise to the equivalent of 1.5 percent of GDP 
this year and about 1.7 percent of GDP in 2007. 
    "The outlook of a slowly improving trade surplus is one of 
the key factors as to why we remain cautiously bullish on the 
crown." 
     
    DAVID ROSS, ANALYST, 4CAST CONSULTANCY, LONDON 
    "The result plays into the recent support found by the 
crown." 
     
    JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY RESEARCH, 
KOMERCNI BANKA, PRAGUE 
    "We were not very surprised about exports, which have 
managed to benefit from euro zone growth, but mainly with 
imports which lagged our expected dynamics. 
    "Given the sharp firming in the crown earlier this week, we 
do not expect a market reaction to the data. (But) the data 
provide no reason for a sharper correction." 
     
    ALES MICHL, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK, PRAGUE 
    "The better foreign trade result will give the crown an 
impulse for further firming. In our view, the crown will soon 
break its historic maximum (of 27.950 per euro posted in 
mid-August). 
    "In case of this scenario materialises, the Czech central 
bank will wait with a further rise in interest rates until the 
first quarter of next year." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown trading at 28.110 per euro <EURCZK=> by 0820 GMT, a 
touch weaker from levels seen just before the news. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Market expectations before release             [ID:nL30918482] 
- Slovak Aug trade figures                       [ID:nL12475445] 
- Polish trade in Aug                            [ID:nL13138633] 
- Hungary's Aug trade data                       [ID:nBUD001743] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision      [ID:nL26548848] 
                                                 [ID:nPRA001007] 
 
- For further details on September foreign trade and other past 
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on       <ECONCZ> 
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on        [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                <CZKVIEW> 
- Czech money guide                                      <CZK/1> 
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                   <0#CZBMK=> 
- Czech forward money market rates                      <CZKFRA> 
 
 ((Writing by Marek Petrus; Editing by Alan Crosby; 
prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: 
marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 477)) 
 ($1=21.99 Czech Crown) 
  Keywords: ECONOMY CZECH TRADE