FACTBOX-Reuters November EU and EMU expansion survey

    Nov 24 (Reuters) - Reuters has surveyed 34 analysts for 
their views on when the 10 countries which joined the European 
Union in 2004, and also Bulgaria and Romania, are likely to 
adopt the euro and when the EU will admit new members. 
    The poll, taken Nov 20-24, also asked what euro parity rates 
analysts expect the currencies of Poland, Hungary, the Czech 
Republic, Bulgaria and Romania to adopt in joining ERM-2, and 
their views on EU entry for Serbia and Turkey. 
    Following is a summary of the results, which can also be 
found on <EMUPOLL30>.  
   For analysis of the results, double-click on [EMU/MEMS1] and 
[EMU/MEMS2].  
     
    1. In what year do you expect the following countries to 
enter Europe's monetary union (i.e. formally adopt the euro)?  
              Median   Mean   Mode   Maximum   Minimum  F'casts 
Poland         2012    2012   2012    2015      2011      30  
Hungary        2014    2013   2014    2015      2010      30  
Czech Republic 2012    2012   2012    2015      2010      31  
Slovakia       2009    2009   2009    2012      2009      32  
Slovenia       2007    2007   2007    2007      2007      29  
Lithuania      2009    2009   2009    2012      2008      28  
Estonia        2009    2009   2009    2010      2008      30  
Latvia         2009    2010   2009    2012      2008      30  
Cyprus         2008    2008   2008    2012      2008      24  
Malta          2008    2009   2008    2012      2008      24  
Romania        2013    2014   2013    2020      2011      27  
Bulgaria       2012    2013   2010    2020      2010      28  
     
    2a. In what year do you expect the following currencies to 
enter the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism?  
                   Median   Mean   Mode   Max.   Min.  F'casts  
Polish zloty       2010     2010   2010   2011   2008  29  
Hungarian forint   2010     2010   2010   2012   2008  29  
Czech crown        2009     2009   2009   2011   2007  30  
Romanian leu       2010     2010   2010   2013   2008  25  
Bulgarian lev      2008     2009   2007   2013   2007  26  
     
    2b. What do you think would be a suitable central parity 
rate and trading band against the euro in ERM-2 for the 
following currencies?                      
                  Median   Mean   Mode     Max.   Min.  F'casts 
Polish zloty      3.7      3.7    3.5      4.0    3.0   20  
Hungarian forint  260      260    260      300    240   21  
Czech crown       27.2     27.0   28.0     29.0   23.0  22  
Romanian leu      3.40     3.45   3.40     3.80   3.20  13  
Bulgarian lev     1.96     1.98   1.96     2.25   1.90  14  
     
    3a. In what year do you expect Croatia to join the European 
Union?  
    The median of 28 numerical forecasts was 2010. The range was 
2009 to 2014.  
     
    3b. In what year do you expect Serbia to start negotiations 
on joining the EU?  
    The median of 21 numerical forecasts was 2009. The range was 
2008 to 2012.  
     
    3c. In what year would you expect Serbia to join the EU?  
    The median of 18 numerical forecasts was 2015. The range was 
2012 to 2020.  
     
    4a. In what year do you expect Turkey to enter the European 
Union?  
    Median of 23 numerical forecasts was 2018. The range was 
2011 to 2025. Three respondents said never.  
     
    4b. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that the 
EU will suspend negotiations with Turkey before they are 
completed?  
    Median of 29 forecasts was 35 percent. The range was 0 to 
100 percent.  
     
    4c. What do you think is the percentage likelihood that 
Turkey decides it does not want to become a full EU member and 
pulls out of the membership talks before they are complete?  
    Median of 26 forecasts was 30 percent. The range was 5 
percent to 70 percent.  
     
    Contributors to the survey were: ABN AMRO, Allianz Dresdner, 
Bayerische Landesbank, Bear Stearns, Calyon, Centre for European 
Reform, Ceska Sporitelna, Citigroup, Cominvest Asset Man., CSOB, 
Deutsche Bank, DIW, Dresdner Kleinwort, DZ Bank, Global Insight, 
Handelsbanken, HSBC, HVB Bank, ING Financial Markets, Institute 
of Public Affairs, KBC Asset Man., Kingston University, Komercni 
Banka, Kopint-Datorg, Landesbank Berlin, Money Market Brokers, 
Morgan Stanley, Natixis, Oppenheim Research, Pellervo Economic 
Research Institute, RZB, Standard & Poor's, UBS, WestLB. 
     
    (Polling by Reuters Polling Unit)  
   ((Editing by Gerrard Raven; Tel: +44 207 542 2687, Reuters 
messaging: natalie.harrison.reuters.com@reuters.net)) 
  Keywords: EUROPE POLL EMU FACTBOX