POLL-Czech Aug trade gap seen hitting year-to-date high

PRAGUE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade balance is likely to have slipped to its biggest monthly deficit so far this year in August, as high global energy costs boosted the country's import bill, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.

The survey of 12 economists produced a median forecast of a 2.25 billion crown ($101.3 million) shortfall <CZFTB=ECI>, suggesting a mild worsening versus a 1.22 billion gap in July but an improvement over a 4.45 billion deficit in August 2005.

The August trade numbers are due for release on Friday.

While the EU member's booming automotive industry and other manufacturing companies have sustained robust export performance, resurgent imports have eaten into a cumulative trade balance surplus for the year-to-date.

Imports have been rising on high oil and natural gas prices globally and also due to a revival in consumer spending, which has increasingly contributed to economic expansion this year.

The trade balance ended in a cumulative 36 billion crown surplus for January-July, matching the year-ago result and halting a trend of a year-on-year improvement which boosted growth to 6-7 percent annual rates in 2005 and early 2006.

"Imports are encumbered with high oil and natural gas prices, which overvalue imports to the Czech Republic," said analysts at bank CSOB in Prague.

"The current decline in raw material prices will probably be more obvious in the trade balance data over the months to come," they added in a report, predicting a 4 billion crown August gap.

Crude oil prices <CLc1><LCOc1>, key also for natural gas prices, have fallen to about $60 a barrel from record highs over $78 in July and August.

The falling oil costs also curb domestic inflation pressure, leading the 12 analysts in the survey to look for a decline in the annual consumer price index to 2.9 percent in September <CZCPIY=ECI>, according to their median forecast.

The August inflation rate picked up to 3.1 percent, just a touch above the 3 percent midpoint of central bank's rolling target, which raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent last week to keep price pressures under wraps.

((FOR AN OVERVIEW OF THE FORECASTS FOR ECONOMIC DATA DUE OUT IN OCTOBER, DOUBLE CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING CODE [ECI/CZ]))

((Writing by Marek Petrus; Editing by Ron Askew; Reuters Messaging: rm://marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; e-mail: prague.newsroom@reuters.com or marek.petrus@reuters.com; Tel: +420 224 190 477)) ($1=22.22 Czech Crown)

Keywords: ECONOMY CZECH POLL