UPDATE 1-Czech leftist ex-PM sees route back to power

(adds Christian Democrat leadership meeting, analyst)

PRAGUE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Czech Social Democrat leader Jiri Paroubek believes he could break the country's political deadlock by forming a minority government capable of winning a confidence vote in parliament, local media reported on Thursday.

"I give it an 80 percent chance (of winning a confidence vote)," the former prime minister told the daily Hospodarske Noviny in an excerpt of an interview published on Thursday. The full interview will be published on Friday, the paper added.

Paroubek ruled for around a year until a general election in June which left parliament deadlocked, with leftist and centre-right groups each controlling 100 seats.

Paroubek is hoping to be asked by President Vaclav Klaus to form a government after Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek's rightist minority cabinet fell in a confidence vote this week.

Analysts say the president may have no alternative since the centre-right failed to win the vote despite four months of talks following the June 2-3 election.

Paroubek would not say how he would get a majority in parliament. His leftist party controls 74 seats and the Communists, whose indirect support is expected, hold 26.

The daily Mlada Fronta Dnes quoted senior Christian Democrat Cyril Svoboda, a former foreign minister, as saying his centrist party should reconsider its stance on not supporting the Social Democrats because of Communist support. The party has 13 seats.

Three Christian Democrats walked out of the confidence vote on Tuesday, refusing to support Topolanek's government.

The Christian Democrats said they would hold a leadership meeting on Thursday afternoon to address the issue.

"I don't see the Christian Democrats supporting the Social Democrats if the Communists are involved as realistic," said Peter Just, a political science professor at Charles University.

Topolanek's Civic Democrats, with 81 seats, are against Paroubek, and the Green Party, with 6 seats, has said it will not support any government that relies on the Communists.

Klaus, who is currently on a tour of Asian nations, has said he would not name a new candidate before local and senate elections, which begin on Oct. 20 and run until Oct. 28.

His aides have said the right-wing president may also push for a government of experts followed by early elections. ((Reporting by Alan Crosby, editing by Keith Weir; prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: alan.crosby.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 477))

Keywords: CZECH POLITICS