INSTANT VIEW 2-Jump in Czech Oct retail sales beats forecast

    (Adds comment, market reaction) 
    Czech retail sales growth 
quickened to a stronger than expected 8.6 percent year-on-year 
in October, confirming this year's revival in consumer spending 
that analysts say may spark an interest rate hike by early 2007. 
 
KEY POINTS: 
(change in percent)      Oct         Sept        Oct forecast 
RETAIL SALES (y/y)       8.6         4.8 (5.2)      7.0 
 
(Click on [ID:nPRA001086] for full table of October retail 
sales) 
 
- The headline, seasonally-unadjusted figure includes car sales 
and repairs, fuel sales and spending on a variety of consumer 
goods, including foodstuffs. 
- In seasonally unadjusted terms, retail sales net of cars and 
fuel grow 7.9 percent year-on-year, nearly doubling after a 4.1 
percent rise a month earlier. Excluding foodstuffs, spending up 
10.5 percent, showing the biggest gain on record. 
- Foodstuffs sales growth accelerates to 4.3 percent from the 
previous month's 1.5 percent. 
- Seasonally-adjusted sales including the auto segment fall by a 
real 0.1 percent month-on-month in October, but rise 0.7 percent 
excluding the auto segment. 
- In the auto segment, sales up 10.1 percent year-on-year thanks 
to a 11.5 percent rise in cars sales and repairs. Fuel sales up 
7.9 percent. 
 
COMMENTARY: 
    DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE 
    "The willingness of households to spend rises thanks to 
favourable wage developments, falling unemployment, and high 
dynamics of consumer loans. 
    "Given other factors we do not think that the retail sales 
data would change expectations of interest rate developments." 
 
MARKET REACTION: 
- Crown steady at 27.655 per euro  by 0820 GMT. 
 
BACKGROUND: 
- Nov consumer inflation                         [ID:nL08309748] 
- Oct industrial output figures                  [ID:nL12357215] 
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision       [ID:nL3091748] 
                                 [ID:nPRA001058] [ID:nPRA001059] 
 
LINKS: 
- For further details on October retail sales and past data, 
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical 
Bureau's website: 
    http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-slu 
 
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on        
- Instant Views on other Czech data                 [CZ/INSTANT] 
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators            [CZ/ECI] 
 
- Key data releases in central Europe    [CEE-CONVERGENCE-WATCH] 
- For Czech money markets data click on                 
- Czech money guide                                       
- Czech benchmark state bond prices                    
- Czech forward money market rates                       
 
 ((Writing by Marek Petrus; prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters 
Messaging: marek.petrus.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 
477; editing by David Christian-Edwards)) 
  Keywords: CZECH RETAIL/  
    

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]