ANALYSIS-Appointing of Czech govt unlikely to end crisis

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The appointment of the second Czech government in seven months is unlikely to end a political crisis in the country, and pushing reforms through parliament will be difficult.

President Vaclav Klaus appointed the centre-right cabinet of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek on Tuesday and the administration must now win a confidence vote in the lower house where it holds only half of the 200 seats.

The constitution calls for the confidence vote within 30 days but Topolanek plans to move faster, and is holding talks with the leftists in a bid to win their support.

But analysts said even if Topolanek gets the simple majority needed to survive the vote, the hung parliament will make it difficult for him to push through his programme of tax and spending reforms, welfare cuts and new healthcare user fees.

"The cabinet is unlikely to win parliamentary approval in the upcoming confidence vote," said former finance minister Pavel Mertlik, head of Raiffiesen Research in Prague.

"(Even if it does win) the ability of the coalition to carry through points of its agenda will therefore be close to zero. The end of the political crisis is hence still out of sight."

This is the 50-year-old prime minister's second attempt to form a government since a June election gave leftist and rightist parties 100 seats each in parliament. A minority government composed solely of his Civic Democrats failed to win a confidence vote in October.

POLITICAL PARALYSIS FEARED

Political commentator Petr Kambersky said he fears that the paralysis in parliament could continue for many more months if the government loses the vote, since it would stay on in a caretaker role, just as Topolanek's first cabinet has done.

"The coalition government could still vegetate (in power) until the spring," he said.

Topolanek's search for votes is likely to focus on two MPs who have left the Social Democrats and now sit as independents.

An informal survey of Social Democrat MPs by the daily Mlada Fronta Dnes on Wednesday showed three deputies, including the two independents, were reluctant to say how they would vote when the confidence motion is put forward.

Party leader Jiri Paroubek has kept a tight grip on his deputies in the past, even requiring them to sign pledges of allegiance to the Social Democrats' official stance.

However, former party leader and ex-prime minister Milos Zeman has urged the Social Democrats to go into opposition and allow the government to be approved. Several MPs are still considered loyal to Zeman, and may be in Topolanek's sights.

"A group of 10 or more Zeman loyalists could come forward and agree to back the new government in exchange for a no-reform agenda and early elections," said political analyst Erik Best.

"Topolanek's recent take no prisoner attitude only makes sense if he has already set these wheels into motion." ((Editing by Stephen Weeks; prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: alan.crosby.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420 224 190 477))

Keywords: CZECH GOVERNMENT/

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]