RPT-ANALYSIS-Poles, Czechs likely to accept missile shield

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By Chris Johnson

Despite fierce public opposition, centre-right governments in Poland and the Czech Republic are determined to push through plans to site a U.S. missile defence system and thus tie Washington's interests to their region.

Although the system -- with a radar station in the Czech Republic and up to 10 ground-based ballistic rockets, or interceptors, in Poland -- would offer no protection now to either country, Warsaw and Prague are playing a longer game.

Analysts and diplomats say both centre-right governments in the former communist states see the U.S. system as a way of locking in a long-term strategic relationship with Washington.

And despite polls showing deep public doubt, and strident political opposition, both administrations believe they can get the plans through parliament provided some concessions are met.

"The missile shield is viewed as a long-term insurance policy for times of acute instability," said Eugeniusz Smollar, president of the Center for International Relations in Warsaw.

"The argument is that if the United States has a major base here, it will view this territory as special and will therefore have a much stronger motivation to look after its security."

The proposed central European defence system would be able to detect and shoot down missiles carrying nuclear, bacteriological or chemical warheads, which the Pentagon says could be fired from Iran from 2011 or 2012.

The system would be part of a multi-billion-dollar scheme to counter "rogue regimes", such as North Korea. Up to 25 interceptors are to be installed this year in the United States.

LONG-TERM RISK

While neither Warsaw nor Prague sees threats now from either Russia or Iran, they are using a precautionary principle.

At the back of their minds, officials say the two countries are worried about a possible long-term risk from their former Soviet masters in Russia, which could be several decades away, and about potential future missiles from the Middle East.

The missile defence plans have angered Russia, which sees it as an attempt to change the strategic balance in Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin criticised the plans on Thursday and said Russia would come up with a "highly effective" response.

Iran, Putin told a news conference in Moscow, did not possess long-range missiles, only medium-range devices.

"Our specialists don't think that anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe are aimed against terrorists or Iran. Can you really fight terrorists with ballistic missiles?" he said.

Tim Williams, head of European security analysis at the Royal United Services Institute, said there was "lingering concern about Russia" in Poland and the Czech Republic.

"This system would be no use against any concerted attack (from Russia). Russia has hundreds of missiles and could easily overwhelm both countries.

"But (Warsaw and Prague) feel it binds them to Washington for the long term, and in that it has extra appeal," he added.

Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski is due to discuss the U.S. proposal with all political parties next week, officials said on Wednesday, and formal negotiations with Washington are likely to begin in the middle of February.

Williams said a calculation that Warsaw and Prague were among the most likely governments to accept the system was one of the key reasons they were selected by Washington.

The central European countries also fall in a convenient geographic band, far enough north for interceptors to shoot down any incoming missiles aimed at Europe, and close enough to most other European states to offer them protection under the shield.

VISAS AND PATRIOTS

An opinion poll this week showed most Poles oppose placing the missiles on Polish soil, and Czech public opinion is also hostile, comments by political parties in Prague suggest.

The left-wing Czech opposition Social Democrats said on Wednesday party members were leaning against hosting the radar.

"This is going to be a hotly debated issue and it won't be easy to push it through," said Jiri Pehe, head of the New York University in Prague. "Now it is 50:50 in parliament."

But a waiver of visas for Czech citizens visiting the United States could swing public opinion in favour of the scheme, analysts say, and politicians from all major Czech parties have said it would underpin the country's long-term security.

The ruling Civic Democrats back the idea in general.

"I am deeply convinced that locating the base (here) will raise the safety of the Czech Republic and its citizens," Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said in parliament on Wednesday.

In Poland, the plan has raised concern among junior partners of the coalition government who have suggested the missiles could make the country a target of terrorism.

But this objection can probably be overcome, diplomats say, if the ruling conservative Law and Justice party can get U.S. help to place advanced medium-range Patriot batteries in Poland to counter any risk of attack from rogue missiles.

((christopher.johnson.reuters.com@reuters.net; +48 22 653 9706))

Keywords: MISSILES USA/EUROPE

[WARSAW/Reuters/Finance.cz]