POLL-Slovak GDP growth seen slowing to 8.1 pct in Q4

    * What: Fourth quarter GDP forecast +8.1 percent 
year-on-year versus +9.8 percent in third quarter  
    * When: 0800 GMT, Feb 13 
    * Slowing growth, improving structure 
     
    By Martin Santa 
    Slovak economic growth 
probably slowed in the fourth quarter of 2006, but the EU member 
looks poised to show record full-year expansion and prospects of 
further economic acceleration, analysts said on Monday. 
    A Reuters poll of 11 analysts showed the median forecast of 
real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8.1 percent, 
compared with a record 9.8 percent annual rise seen in the third 
quarter. 
    The Reuters poll also showed the market predicting full-year 
2006 real GDP growth of 7.9 percent, which would be the fastest 
ever, according to Statistics Office database. 
    The Statistics Office will publish its flash GDP estimates 
on Tuesday, 9 a.m. (0800 GMT). 
    Slovakia has had one of the highest growth rates in the EU 
in the past four years, and is expected to join the ranks of the 
world's fastest growing economies with 2006 and 2007 GDP data. 
    "The economy probably showed record growth last year, said 
Lucia Steklacova, senior economist at INB Bank in Bratislava. 
    "Apart from domestic demand that had led growth in the past 
two or three years, there were also accelerating exports in 
2006," Steklacova said. 
    Analysts said economic slowdown in the last three months of 
2006 would be due to an unusually strong one-off jump in 
inventories in the third quarter. 
    The market's full-year forecast for 2006 matches government 
expectations, but it is less optimistic than the 8.2 percent 
annual rise projected by the central bank. 
    Slovak economic growth is expected to accelerate further in 
2007 on the back of rising exports from new car assembly plants 
that French PSA Peugeot Citroen  and South Korean Kia 
Motors  opened last year. 
    The central bank, which raised interest rates last year to 
curb inflation and safeguard Slovakia's goal of adopting the 
euro in 2009, has said economic growth is fuelled by rising 
productivity and is not creating inflation pressures. 
    "If consumer consumption dynamics slows, it could reassure 
the central bank that demand-led inflation risks are not that 
strong, and it could ease monetary conditions a bit," said Tatra 
Banka analyst Juraj Valachy. 
    ((For table with results of the Reuters poll, please double 
click on [ID:nL1257236])) 
  ((Writing by Peter Laca and Martin Santa, editing by Stephen 
Nisbet; Reuters Messaging: peter.laca.reuters.com@reuters.net; 
+421 2 5341 8402)) 
  Keywords: SLOVAKIA GDP/PREVIEW 
    

[BRATISLAVA/Reuters/Finance.cz]