RPT-POLL-Czech CPI seen ticking up on regulated prices, food

...

* What: Czech January consumer prices

* When: Feb 14 at 9 a.m. (0800 GMT)

* Inflation expected to tick up to 1.9 pct

PRAGUE (Reuters) - Czech inflation jumped to 1.9 percent on an annual basis in January as regulated price hikes and food prices feed into consumer prices, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The poll of 12 analyst groups conducted between January 29 and January 31 showed both median and average expectation of monthly inflation at 1.6 percent .

Year-on-year inflation , is seen rising from 1.7 percent in December but still remaining well below the central bank's 3 percent target.

Regulated prices accounted for much of the January price rise, mainly due to past hikes in tobacco tax and higher electricity prices and rents, while fuel prices dropped.

"Apart from food, the rise is driven by regulated prices which make up 1.1 percentage point of the overall number," said Komercni Banka analyst Jiri Skop.

Komercni expects a 1.7 percent price rise on the month and a 2.0 percent annual increase.

Skop said adjusted inflation, which takes out the impact of regulated prices and fuels and is a key indicator for central bankers, remained below one percent as a strong crown offset demand side pressures in the fast-growing economy.

Analysts and the central bank expect price growth to pick up throughout the year, leading to interest rate hikes.

But the rise of the crown to record highs of 27.410 to the euro late last year has shifted expectations of the next rate hike further into 2007, even though the currency has slid alongside its regional peers last month.

The central bank left its key repo rate flat at 2.5 percent last week, maintaining the lowest cost of money in the European Union. Skop said he expected two quarter-point interest rates hikes this year, coming in the second and third quarter.

NEW CPI BASKET

The inflation figure will also be closely watched due to an adjustment of the price basket, announced by the Czech Statistical Bureau in November.

The CSU said it would recalculate December 2006 data according to the new basket, and publish them alongside the January figures, but leave older results unchanged.

The CSU has said it estimated the new basket would cut the December inflation number by between zero and 0.5 percentage points.

Analyst Petr Sklenar of Atlantik FT said he would also look for the impact of the January launch of a highway toll system for trucks.

The poll also showed a median expectation of 2.0 billion crowns ($92.72 million) December foreign trade gap, which would put full-year trade surplus at 48.75 billion.

Trade data are due out at 9 a.m. (0800 GMT) on February 5.

((For a TABLE with poll results click on , or double click on: [ID:nL01674601])) ((Writing by Jan Lopatka, editing by Ron Askew; prague.newsroom@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: jan.lopatka.reuters.com@reuters.net; +420-224 190 474)) ($1=21.57 Czech Crown)

Keywords: CZECH ECONOMY/INFLATION