EARNINGS POLL-CME seen posting jump in Q4 revenue, core profit

    * CME   fourth quarter 2006 earnings 
    * March 1, before 3:30 p.m. (1430 GMT) 
    * Average revenue forecast $201.8 million, up 31 percent. 
     
    Television broadcaster CME 
  enjoyed sharply higher fourth-quarter 
revenue and core profits on advertising growth in east Europe, a 
Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. 
    Central European Media Enterprises (CME) was forecast to 
post a 31 percent surge in revenue for the last three months of 
2006 to $201.8 million, according to the average of estimates 
from eight analysts polled in the survey. 
    Segment earnings -- a measure of performance in individual 
countries where the group operates and excludes certain 
corporate expenses and other items -- before interest, tax, 
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was expected on average 
to jump 23.4 percent to $89.1 million, the poll showed. 
    "Our 29 percent top-line growth estimate is largely driven 
by continued solid performance in Romania and a recovery in the 
Czech Republic," said Pawel Gierczak, analyst at Deutsche Bank. 
    CME operates television stations in the Czech Republic, 
Slovakia, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania, all economies 
where buoyant economic growth has boosted advertising spending. 
    Czech TV station Nova, which makes up for two-fifths of 
overall CME group revenue and half of estimated core earnings, 
has recovered some lost market share after pricing changes held 
back its performance in early 2006. 
    Analysts said CME's net profit was traditionally difficult 
to forecast because of exchange rate losses and various one-off 
items, and their estimates for the fourth-quarter result ranged 
between $11.6 and $55.7 million. 
    CME stock was up 0.4 percent at $81.60 on Nasdaq by 1550 
GMT, down from an all-time high of $90.40 reached in early 
February. Following is a summary of analyst expectations 
(figures in $ million): 
     
 Q4                  Average    Median    Q4/05        Range 
 REVENUES             201.8     199.6     152.5     195.0-209.0 
 SEGMENT EBITDA        89.1      86.7      70.2      69.6-115.9 
 OPERATING PROFIT      60.5      68.1      43.0       9.1- 79.9 
 NET PROFIT            25.6      21.1      34.6      11.6- 55.7 
 
 2006                Average    Median     2005        Range 
 REVENUES             590.5     588.4     401.0     568.6-623.8 
 SEGMENT EBITDA       198.6     209.6     157.9     140.6-214.7 
 OPERATING PROFIT     120.7     135.0      52.4      52.3-148.7 
 NET PROFIT            37.1      34.5      42.5       5.7- 91.2 
 
    NOTE: Eight analysts predicted revenues and net profit for 
the fourth quarter, seven for segment EBITDA and operating 
profit. Ten analysts gave forecasts for full year revenues and 
net profit, nine for full-2006 operating profit and six for 
segment EBITDA. 
     
    The following banks and brokerages took part in the poll: 
    Atlantik FT, BH-Securities, CA-IB, Cyrrus, Deutsche Bank, 
Erste Bank/Ceska Sporitelna, KBC Securities/Patria Finance, 
Komercni Banka, Lehman Brothers, Wood & Company. 
     
 

[PRAGUE/Reuters/Finance.cz]