By Martin Dokoupil
BRATISLAVA, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Slovak inflation rebounded from two-year lows in September on a jump in food prices, but analysts said the spike did not threaten the chances of meeting a euro entry test and interest rates would stay flat.
Thursday's data showed consumer inflation climbed to 2.8 percent year-on-year last month from 2.3 percent in August and July, but it stayed well below the 4.6 percent seen in September 2006.
On the month prices rose 0.2 percent, against a 0.1 percent rise in August and a 0.3 percent fall in September last year. The figures, calculated under local standards, came slightly above market forecast of a 0.1 percent rise.
"The main factor pushing inflation up was food," said Miroslav Frayer, analyst at Komercni Banka in Prague.
"We expect an acceleration of year-on-year growth of EU-harmonised inflation, due next week, and there is even bigger upside risk now after today's data."
Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages jumped 1.0 percent on the month in September, after a 0.4 percent drop in August, the Statistics Office said.
The EU-norm inflation, due on Oct. 16, is the key yardstick for Slovakia's ambition to join the euro zone in 2009.
Slovakia, whose economy grew an annual 9.4 percent in the second quarter, met the euro adoption criterion for inflation for the first time ever in August. And analysts said there was no danger that food prices would derail its euro entry plans.
"We can expect further acceleration in food prices but it should not endanger meeting the Maastricht (euro entry) criteria," said Eduard Hagara, analyst at ING Bank in Bratislava.
"There are not so many months left for food prices to be so much reflected in the 12-month average. Food prices are rising in other countries so the reference value (for the euro zone entry) should also rise," he said.
Analysts polled by Reuters earlier this month saw EU-norm inflation at 1.6 percent on the year in September, up from the record low of 1.2 percent in both August and July.
To enter the euro zone, a candidate country must keep inflation, calculated as the 12-month average, no more than 1.5 percentage point above the average of the three EU states with the lowest inflation.
The central bank (NBS) was likely to keep its key two-week repo rate steady at 4.25 percent in the coming months, waiting for the euro zone benchmark, now 25 basis points below Slovakia, to converge, analysts said.
"I do not see any implications of this data on monetary policy. I expect stable rates also in the first half of 2008," Frayer said.
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(Additional reporting by Martin Santa) ((Editing by David Christian-Edwards; Reuters Messaging: martin.dokoupil.reuters.com@reuters.net; +421 2 5341 8402))
Keywords: SLOVAKIA INFLATION/
