PRAGUE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade posted a
bigger than forecast 14.5 billion crown ($792.3 million) surplus
in November, data showed on Thursday, which analysts said was
largely due to a low comparative base from a year earlier.
Exports were flat year on year, the first time in 13 months
they did not contract. Imports fell by 8.0 percent.
Those were huge improvements over the 18.0 percent and 13.2
percent falls in the two categories in November of 2008, when
the economic crisis was just reaching its stride.
Analysts said the numbers were helped by fiscal stimulus in
western Europe such as a car scrap subsidy scheme in Germany --
the main destination for Czech exports -- and it boded well both
for Czech fourth quarter growth and the crown currency.
But exporters could face headwinds in 2010 following the end
of the car subsidy and signs of waning consumer sentiment,
illustrated by an unexpected fall in German November retail
sales in data also released on Thursday.
The Czech crown <EURCZK=> was slightly weaker at 26.310 to
the euro by 0828 GMT, from 26.29 before the data.
**************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(in bln CZK) Nov Oct Nov fcast
balance 14.54 17.48 11.6
(nominal y/y change in pct)
exports 0.0 -11.2 -2.6
imports -8.0 -21.1 -10.0
(For full table of trade data, click on........[])
- According to seasonally-adjusted preliminary data, exports
rose 1.1 percent in November, from October, while imports rose
3.0 percent month-on-month.
- In euro terms, exports fell by 2.5 percent and imports fell
10.3 percent year-on-year in November.
- The balance showed an annual improvement by 15.6 billion
crowns after the November foreign trade figure last year showed
a 1.09 billion gap. The improvement was mainly due to a better
balance of trade in cars and machinery and industrial consumer
products. The deficit in the the balance of mineral fuels and
chemicals and food trade shrank.
- Exports of cars and machinery fell by 2.4 percent
year-on-year. Imports in that sector fell 9.0 percent.
COMMENTARY:
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ING WHOLESALE BANKING
"The continuous monthly growth in exports on the one hand
and a persistent drop in imports on the other show the widening
gap between a recovering foreign demand and a weakening
consumption and investments."
"The recovering demand along with weak imports for domestic
demand bodes well with a strengthening of the crown in the
coming months."
HELENA HORSKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISENBANK
"The main reason is car exports and falling oil prices. It
is a favourable news. Exports returned to last year's levels
despite expectations for a drop. Imports keep falling and will
remain weak."
"Overall, it is good news for fourth quarter GDP. The
economy may remains in negative figures but, thanks to foreign
trade, the annual decline will be more moderate."
RADOMIR JAC, CHIEF ANALYST, GENERALI PPF ASSET MANAGEMENT
"Foreign trade brought positive results: it shows very
strong year-on-year improvement in the trade balance and exports
were flat year-on-year, which means they did not decline, for
the first time since September 2008."
"As expected, the improvement in the trade balance was
supported mainly by higher surplus in trade with machinery and
transport equipment."
"Developments of exports are quite in line with preliminary
data on industrial output and the story is also similar: annual
performance of both industrial output and exports is mainly
supported by base effects and we can therefore expect further
improvements in months to come."
"However, end of car scrapping schemes in several European
countries will have negative impact on Czech car output and
exports during 2010."
"We will see the overall trade surplus somewhere above 145
billion crowns for 2009, but this is unlikely to be repeated in
2010 as mineral fuel prices are growing and also domestic demand
in the Czech economy and, therefore imports, will gradually
recover later this year."
DAVID MAREK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PATRIA FINANCE
"The stagnation in exports is due to the low comparative
base from the last year when the Czech Republic was markedly hit
by the global economic recession."
"The fact that there is an annual stagnation corresponds
with the result of industrial output that had moderate annual
growth."
"The data is another indication of an improvement... as
foreign demand stabilises while domestic demand remains deeply
dampened. The result is stagnating exports, falling imports and
a record surplus that will be recorded for the whole 2009."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"The surplus above consensus is positive news, as well as
the stagnation of exports. There is no decline, and exports are
at the same level as a year ago, which is good news."
"From the FX point of view, it is a supportive figure for
the Czech crown and could help the crown somewhat."
BACKGROUND:
- Market expectations before release []
- Slovak Oct trade figures []
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision.......[]
[] [] [] []
- For further details on November foreign trade and other past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-vzo
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data click on []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
