PRAGUE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The Czech economy grew by a real
4.2 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter, the
statistical bureau said on Wednesday, below the 4.7 percent
flash estimate released in November.
The Czech expansion lagged the boom in neighbouring
Slovakia, which posted 7.0 percent growth in July-September, and
Poland's 4.8 percent, but was ahead Hungary, which reported 0.8
percent growth.
The statistical bureau also confirmed second-quarter growth
estimate of 4.6 percent and cut the first-quarter rate to 4.9
percent from previously reported 5.4 percent.
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KEY POINTS:
(pct change) Q3/08 Q2/08 Q3/07 2007
Real change yr/yr 4.2 (4.7) 4.6 (4.6) 5.8 (6.5) 5.9 (6.6)
NOTE. GDP up 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter when adjusted
for seasonal factors and the difference in working days, down
from previously reported 1.0 percent.
CENTRAL BANK FORECAST: Third-quarter GDP growth of 4.7 percent,
released in its most recent projection unveiled in November.
(For full table of Q2 GDP data................[])
- The decline was due to a combination of external and domestic
influences, mainly a significant slowdown in economies that are
the Czech Republic's main trading partners, further aggravated
by the fast appreciating crown, the office said.
- A declining growth in household spending caused by high
inflation was the main reason for the slowdown coming from
domestic economy.
COMMENTARY:
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT GLOBAL RESEARCH
"I do not think it is a negative signal; I would even say
that an annual growth of 4.2 (percent) looks, in the light of a
recession in a majority of big European economies, incredibly
well, but the faster the economy grew in the third quarter the
steeper the slowdown it will face."
DAVID MAREK, PATRIA FINANCE, CHIEF ECNOMIST
"It is obvious that exports still contribute to the economic
growth but likely for the last time."
"The drop in investment is negative information which shows
that the corporate sector has been cooling already from the
middle of the year and this cooling can deepen.
"I think that thanks to the downward revision the likelihood
of a significant cut in interest rates is rising."
JAROMIR SINDEL, ANALYST, CITIBANK
"What is interesting is the significant drop in gross
capital formation of 2 percent."
"It is the same story as in the second quarter, a
significant dip in inventories."
"At first sight the story is the same, a slowdown of the
economy, a significant contribution of the foreign trade also
thanks to terms of trade but a slowing contribution of domestic
demand."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown a tad firmer at 25.755 to the euro <EURCZK=> from
25.790 ahead of the data.
BACKGROUND:
- For story on analysts' expectations before the data release,
double click on...................[].[]
- Slovak Q3 GDP..................................[]
- Poland's Q3 GDP................................[]
- Hungary's Q3 GDP..............................[]
LINKS:
- For further details on third quarter GDP and past data,
Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-hdp
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
