PRAGUE, July 10 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose by
3.4 percent year-on-year in May, below market forecasts of a 6.0
percent rise.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) May April May forecast
Industrial output 3.4 12.2 6.0
Industrial sales 3.5 12.8 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
- Seasonally adjusted output down 0.7 percent month-on-month.
- Seasonally adjusted output up 6.0 percent year-on-year.
- Overall new orders dipped 1.9 percent year-on-year, and new
orders from abroad decrease 6.0 percent.
- Direct export sales up 6.5 percent in real terms, accounting
for 47.9 percent of overall sales.
ANALYST COMMENTS
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT
"The data is consistent with the overall picture of an
economic slowdown. It shows the demand in the economy is
weakening and, combined with the effect of the strong crown, I
think it is going to get worse."
DAVID MAREK, ANALYST, PATRIA FINANCE
"Everything is pointing to a slowdown in Czech industry.
There are two main reasons: the euro zone slowdown and the
strong currency."
"The economy needs less tight conditions, but the currency
is an obstacle for the central bank to think about lower rates.
Any move of rates can swing the crown... and inflation is still
high."
MICHAL BROZKA, ANALYST, RAIFFEISEN
"The data shows a potential negative impact of global
developments, along with the appreciating Czech crown. Investors
speculating on the appreciating crown should start noticing
these signals."
DAVID NAVRATIL, CHIEF ANALYST, CESKA SPORITELNA
"It is lower than expected. It shows a slowdown in Germany
and the strong crown has had an impact on Czech industry.
"The crown appreciation has to have an impact on industry
and we will see a slowdown this year. But I do not think one
negative figure will change the mood on the crown.
"If the crown stays at this level the central bank will cut
rates. Our expectation is by the end of this year or the
beginning of next year."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERCNI BANKA
"The data is disappointing, and it confirms the overall
trend of a deceleration in the economy. It was expected
especially after the slowdown in foreign trade. I do not see a
major reaction by the market."
BACKGROUND:
- May foreign trade figures.......................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision []
[] [] []
LINKS:
- For further details on May output and sales numbers and past
data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech Statistical
Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova; Editing by Michael Winfrey)
