POLL-Most analysts see Czech rates up by 25 bps in Feb

                                
 By Mirka Krufova and Martin Dokoupil
                                
 PRAGUE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The Czech central bank (CNB) will
raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week to tame
soaring inflation, but that may be the last increase in its
two-year tightening drive, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
                                
 Fifteen of the 16 CNB watchers surveyed predicted the 
two-week repo rate <CZCBIR=ECI> would rise to 3.75 percent, a
nearly 6-year peak, at the policymakers' next meeting on Feb. 7 
                                
 "It seems the time for another monetary policy tightening
has come," said David Marek, chief economist at Patria Finance.
"We are facing a swing of inflation above 6 percent for the
first time since 1998."
                                
 Consumer price inflation is expected to have hit a nine-year
high of 6.2 percent in January, fed by tax increases and rising
energy and food costs, according to a separate Reuters survey of
economists earlier this week. In recent months inflation has
climbed well above the bank's target of 3 percent, +/- 1
percentage point.
                                
 The CNB has doubled the key rate from a record low of 1.75
percent in October 2005 as it cracked down on surging inflation
in the fast-growing central European economy. Rate-setters
tightened policy four times in 2007.
                                
 But CNB board member Robert Holman, who favours stable
rates, said on Wednesday a threat of a recession in the United
States and the strong crown currency should rather discourage
the bank from raising lending costs.
                                
 (for report please double click on [ID:nL30152911])
 The CNB's seven-member board voted 5-2 to pause the
tightening cycle at its last meeting in December due to record
crown strength and prospects of slowing consumption growth. 
                                
 All the seven board members will attend the bank's policy
meeting next week.
                                
 Of the 16 analysts, nine bet the CNB will leave benchmark
credit costs flat for the rest of 2008. Six watchers see another
25 basis-point rise between March and September.
                                
 "It (a February increase) could be the last rate rise this
year," said CSOB Bank analyst Petr Dufek. "Inflation continues
to be a cost-side one, being pushed up by administrative
measures, while demand-led inflation is minimal."
                                
 "We also expect the hike to be the last one ... due to
negative trends on the world's main financial markets," he said.
                                
 Policymakers will debate a new quarterly inflation
projection at the meeting, which will indicate risks stemming
from demand-side pressures.
                                
 The CNB will also publish its interest rate forecast as a
fan chart for the first time to make its decisions more
transparent. It also plans disclosing votes cast by board
members by name.
                                
 The crown stood at 26.025 per euro as of 0720 GMT, compared
with a life high of 25.790 per euro <EURCZK=> seen on Jan. 24.
It has gained 1.9 percent against the common European currency
this year, helped by expectations of further policy tightening.
                                
 The median forecast for the main rate 12 months from now was
3.75 percent, down from 4.00 percent in the previous poll in
December.
 TABLE with analysts' rate forecasts...........[ID:nL01301640]
 PREVIOUS comments by CNB bankers .............[ID:nL22520699]
                                
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  (Writing by Martin Dokoupil; editing by David Stamp)