By Jana Mlcochova
PRAGUE, June 6 (Reuters) - The Czech foreign trade surplus
jumped in April after poor March readings but analysts said high
oil prices, the strong Czech crown and the slowdown in the euro
zone may have begun to affect exporters.
The foreign trade balance ended in a 8.28 billion crown
surplus, beating analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll predicting
a 6.0 billion surplus, in part due to the impact of Easter
holidays which came in March after falling in April in 2007.
The surplus rose from 7.75 billion in March, a month that
saw results skewed by an earlier than expected Easter holiday.
The crown jumped after the data release to an all time high
against the euro, apart from a one-off offshore trade in April,
trading as high as 24.520 <EURCZK=>, 0.43 percent up on the day.
It slipped back to 24.602 by 1047 GMT.
But analysts said the special calendar factor was the main
reason for the April improvement.
"Looking ahead, the impact of the strong crown and weakening
industrial activity in the euro zone are likely to have a
negative impact on Czech exports and therefore also on the trade
balance," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at PPF asset
management.
"The April results are very favourable but one should put
them into longer perspective before making too optimistic
conclusions."
Seasonally-adjusted exports rose 1.4 percent in April from
March, while imports rose 9.3 percent month-on-month.
Year-on-year, nominal exports jumped 12.6 percent while imports
rose 11.1 percent.
In euro terms, exports and imports rose 25.8 percent and
24.2 percent, respectively year-on-year in April, outpacing the
figures in crowns thanks to the firming of the domestic
currency.
The crown has gained 13.36 percent to the euro over the past
year, propped up by strong exports and more than 6 percent
economic growth as well as rising interest rates in the central
European economy.
The trade data followed a bearish reading in this week's
Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), which fell to a three year low
of 51.8 in May.
The main market for Czech exports -- the euro zone -- is
expected to see slower growth in the second quarter.
"Czech imports have benefited from German industrial orders
over the long term, but this indicator has recently showed a
tendency to decline," said Unicredit's Pavel Sobisek.
Separate data showed Hungary's economic growth picked up to
1.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter on higher
industrial and agricultural production, but construction and
services remained sluggish.
It also posted an April trade surplus of 52.4 million euro,
versus a forecast of a 78.0 million deficit.
Romania's unadjusted industrial output dropped 3.4 percent
on the month in April, but was up 13.3 percent on the year.
For TABLE with trade data, click on []
For INSTANT VIEW, click on []
For Hungarian GDP data, click on []
For Romanian output data, click on []
(Editing by Keith Weir)
