PRAGUE, May 24 (Reuters) - The final Czech opinion poll
ahead of an election this week showed centre-right parties would
likely win a majority, narrowing the chances of a left-wing
government that could displease markets.
A Factum Invenio survey showed the left-wing Social
Democrats would be the biggest party after the May 28-29 vote,
with 26.3 percent. But the right-wing Civic Democrats have
narrowed the gap and would only trail by 3.4 percentage points.
Recent polls have pointed to an increasingly tight race, and
the Factum survey was the most positive for the centre-right. It
showed smaller centrist and conservative parties will likely be
the kingmakers in forming the cabinet.
A centre-right grouping led by the Civic Democrats could
take 102-110 seats in the 200-seat parliament, the poll showed.
Such a coalition would be favoured by markets due to hopes it
would cut spending and launch pension and health care reforms.
The poll showed the Social Democrats and the far-left
Communists would together win 90 seats, eliminating the chance
of a minority Social Democrat cabinet supported by the
Communists -- the outcome seen as most negative by the market.
If smaller centrist and conservative parties link up with
the Social Democrats, such a colation could occupy 117 seats,
according to the poll. Such an alliance would have to square
differences between the conservative advocacy for spending cuts
with Social Democrat calls for higher taxes and welfare.
The survey showed the Social Democrats would take 62 seats;
the Civic Democrats 55 seats, the Communists 28 seats; the
centrist Public Affairs 26 seats, the conservative TOP09 21
seats; and the centrist Christian Democrats 8 seats.
It may take weeks or months to form a government if the
election is inconclusive, affecting 2011 budget preparations.
A caretaker cabinet led by independent Prime Minister Jan
Fischer has ruled since last spring, when a centre-right
coalition lost a no-confidence vote. Fischer is not running in
the election, but the caretaker cabinet will stay in office
until the new administration takes over.
Monday was the last day when publishing polls was allowed.
DATE AGENCY ODS CSSD KSCM TOP09 KDU-CSL
Greens VV SPOZ
May 24/10 Factum 22.9 26.3 13.1 10.9 5.5 2.5
12.6 2.6
May 19/10 CVVM 19.0 30.5 13.0 14.0 3.5 4.5
11.5 2.0
May 17/10 STEM 18.7 27.0 11.8 9.2 3.9 3.1
8.9 2.3
May 12/10 Factum 21.7 27.5 13.9 11.1 5.2 2.9
11.0 3.2
May 10/10 Median 19.0 26.2 13.3 10.7 7.5 3.5
7.6 6.8
April 21/10 CVVM 22.5 30.0 13.0 11.5 4.0 4.0
9.0 3.0
April 16/10 STEM 18.6 27.8 9.9 9.3 4.9 3.2
8.1 3.1
April 14/10 Factum 22.3 29.5 13.9 11.6 5.5 2.6
8.9 -
April 13/10 Median 21.2 27.0 16.8 7.5 7.4 4.8
4.3 3.0
March 24/10 Factum 22.5 28.7 13.9 11.1 5.8 3.4
9.2 -
March 17/10 CVVM 25.5 32.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 4.5
7.0 3.0
March 16/10 STEM 20.0 27.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 3.8
6.2 3.6
Feb 2010 Median 20.7 34.5 13.9 9.6 5.5 4.8
5.2 -
Feb 24/10 Factum 23.8 27.9 14.3 13.0 6.4 3.7
5.7 -
Feb 19/10 CVVM 20.5 33.0 14.5 12.5 5.0 5.0
6.0 2.0
Feb 18/10 STEM 23.2 28.6 11.7 9.1 4.3 2.7
4.7 2.0
Jan 2010 Median 27.8 32.0 12.8 9.3 7.4 4.3
2.4 -
Jan 31/10 Factum 25.5 31.8 13.3 11.4 6.6 2.0
3.8 -
Jan 27/10 CVVM 25.5 28.0 12.0 13.0 7.0 6.0
4.0 1.5
Jan 19/10 STEM 20.9 28.7 10.9 8.4 4.2 4.0
3.9 -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
June 2006 election 35.4 32.3 12.8 - 7.2 6.3
- -
NOTE. The factum poll was conducted between May 7 and May 12
among 1,004 Czechs.
The parties are:
- Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - right, liberal-conservative
- The Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) - left
- The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) - far left
- TOP09 - conservative, to the right of ODS
- Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party
(KDU-CSL) - centrist
- The Greens - environmentalists, centrist
- Public Affairs (VV) - new centrist party
- People's Rights party (SPOZ) - centre-left, set up by former
leftist PM Zeman, says can support right or left government
Pollsters: The CVVM, Median and Factum results are based on
a model predicting gains at the ballot box, excluding those not
willing to vote and undecided.
STEM results are direct voter preferences, and include
replies from all respondents including those not willing to
vote. Parties should thus win a larger than indicated share of
the vote at the election. This is relevant mainly for small
parties, which may cross the 5 percent threshold to win seats
even if direct voter preferences show them below the minimum
level.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka; editing by Steve Gutterman)
