* U.S. economy still under strain - Obama
* IMF to cut global forecast, sees 2010 recovery-paper
* China economy near bottom, fuel stocks falling
(Releads, updates prices, adds China fuels stock data )
By Fayen Wong
PERTH, April 20 (Reuters) - Oil fell as much as 2 percent
towards $49 a barrel on Monday, weighed down by a rising U.S.
dollar and growing caution about the pace of any global
economic recovery.
A warning by U.S. President Barack Obama over the weekend
that the country's economy remains under strain, and moves by
his top economic adviser to temper hopes for a speedy recovery,
dampened sentiment and increased risk aversion.
U.S. crude for May delivery <CLc1> was down 88 cents to
$49.45 a barrel by 0233 GMT, after having earlier fallen by
$1.03.
London Brent crude fell 73 cents to $52.62.
"The pullback is largely due to a stronger U.S. dollar.
There is also increased risk aversion following cautious
comments from U.S. officials over the weekend that the economy
still faced risks," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa
Global Markets in Singapore.
The euro struck a one-month low against the dollar and
three-week trough versus the yen on Monday after comments by
European Central Bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet were taken
as bearish. []
"Investors have probably been too optimistic on the
strength of the global economy over the past two weeks and now
they are using the opportunity to take profits," Kwek said.
Oil's gains towards the end of last week were buoyed by
optimism that the U.S. economy was recovering, with a survey
showing that U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in April to the
highest levels since September. []
But President Obama said on Sunday that the U.S. economy
remained under strain, and his top economic adviser Paul
Volcker cautioned that the country's economic recovery would be
a "long slog". []
A torrent of possibly poor corporate earnings this week is
also threatening Wall Street's recent impressive rally. []
The International Monetary Fund was also sounding a
cautious note, with Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn
saying the agency would cut its global economic forecasts in
the coming week, although he expected a recovery to start in
the first half of next year. []
Oil has plummetted nearly $100 from its peak of over $147
last July, but has flattened out to trade around $50 for most
of this month, with implied volatility falling to a six-month
low on Friday.
OPEC member Algeria though gave warning that oil prices
could fall further given weak demand and rising crude stocks,
which in the United States have reached their highest level in
nearly 19 years. []
OPEC will be taking a big risk if it does not make a
further adjustment to oil supply, a newspaper quoted Algerian
Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil as saying on Sunday.
[]
The bright spot for commodities remains China, with a
government researcher writing in the official China Securities
Journal that the economy of the world's No.2 energy consumer is
bottoming out. []
Refined fuel inventories held by the country's oil duopoly
fell 14.7 percent at the end of March from a month ago, and
sales rose 21 percent in the same period, providing signs of
improving fuel demand. []
Crude oil speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange
decreased net long positions in the week to April 14, according
to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
released on Friday. []
(Reporting by Fayen Wong; Editing by Michael Urquhart)
