PRAGUE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Czech industrial output rose 15.9
percent year-on-year in November, above analysts' forecasts and
following 6.9 percent growth the previous month, data showed on
Friday.
Working day-adjusted data showed a year-on-year rise of 13.0
percent. Seasonally adjusted output rose 2.0 percent
month-on-month.
The annual growth was mainly due to an increase in the
production of cars and machinery, the data showed.
****************************************************************
KEY POINTS:
(y/y change in pct) Nov Oct Nov forecast
Industrial output 15.9 6.9 11.3
Industrial sales 14.9 7.8 n/a
(Full table of data............................[])
COMMENTARY:
VOJTECH BENDA, SENIOR ANALYST, ING COMMERCIAL BANKING
"The data show the economic growth is not losing steam in
the fourth quarter. We can expect a relatively strong growth in
GDP in the fourth quarter. The growth in exports is another
strong signal for industrial production.
"It means that the accumulation of stocks in the second and
the third quarters will not lead to a slowdown industrial
output. The continuing growth in foreign demand is a signal that
industrial production will have sufficient impulses to growth in
the following months."
"The strong growth in imports show recovery in domestic
demand, which is investment and private consumption."
JAN VEJMELEK, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND STRATEGY RESEARCH,
KOMERNCI BANKA:
"The November growth by 15.9 percent exceeded even the most
optimistic expectations. An excellent result had been indicated
by strong growth of German November corporate orders."
"Industrial output growth should continue in 2011, although
at a lower pace. Fiscal restriction and a slowdown of the
economic recovery in the Czech republic is the main factor for
lower growth dynamics this year."
PAVEL SOBISEK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, PRAGUE
"It appears that industry is getting on a strong footing.
This was suggested by yesterday's strong export (data). It is
clear that industry is working as the engine of the Czech
economy at the moment."
"Given the strength of November it is pretty much likely
that this will extend through at the least the first quarter of
this year. What will happen after that is yet to be seen."
"Also because of the strong exports seen (in data)
yesterday, we have revised our GDP forecast for the last quarter
of 2010, and now (forecast) GDP growth was above 3 percent
year-on-year, in unadjusted figures, in the fourth quarter."
MARKET REACTION:
Crown flat at 24.59 to the euro <EURCZK=> after the data.
DETAILS:
- Overall new orders rose 14.2 percent year-on-year. Orders from
abroad rose 21.6 percent year-on-year.
- The growth in orders was thanks to a 16.3 percent rise in the
sector of cars and vehicles. Orders for electronics, computers
and optical devices rose 17.9 percent.
- Construction output, measured by a separate index, dipped 0.1
percent year-on-year in November.
BACKGROUND:
- Nov foreign trade figures......................[]
- Report on last Czech c.bank rate decision......[]
[]
LINKS:
- For further details on November output and sales numbers and
past data, Reuters 3000 Xtra users can click on the Czech
Statistical Bureau's Website:
http://www.czso.cz/eng/csu.nsf/kalendar/2004-pru
- For LIVE Czech economic data releases, click on <ECONCZ>
- Instant Views on other Czech data []
- Overview of Czech macroeconomic indicators []
- Key data releases in central Europe []
- For Czech money markets data click on <CZKVIEW>
- Czech money guide <CZK/1>
- Czech benchmark state bond prices <0#CZBMK=>
- Czech forward money market rates <CZKFRA>
(Reporting by Jana Mlcochova)
