(Updates prices, adds European opening, adds details)
By Tom Miles
HONG KONG, April 29 (Reuters) - Asia stocks stalled near three-month highs on Tuesday ahead of a U.S. interest rate decision and economic data that could draw a line under the downturn or send markets back into the recession-watch of February and March.
Trading was subdued as Japan's markets were closed for the first of a string of Golden Week holidays and investors elsewhere hunkered down, with thin trade in stocks and a weak oil market that saw crude slip back from Monday's record close to $120 a barrel.
Financial spread-betters saw European markets opening broadly flat, with London's FTSE 100 <
> up 2-3 points, Germany's DAX < > between 8 points down and 2 points up and France's CAC 40 < > between 6 points down and 1 point up.Investors are anxious to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will draw a line under the credit crisis on Wednesday by signalling its run of rate cuts is coming to an end. They also want to hear if the U.S. economy managed to grow in the first quarter, which would be enough to stave off recession for another three months.
The answer will come on Wednesday, with economists projecting an annualised 0.2 percent growth rate. [
]Whatever the figure, bank earnings remain under pressure, with Deutsche Bank <DBKGn.DE> reporting its first quarterly loss in five years and fresh writedowns of 2.7 billion euros.
"In the first quarter of this year, the financial market conditions were the most difficult in recent memory," chief executive Josef Ackermann said in a statement.
"In the month of March, pressure on the banking sector was more intense than at any time since the current credit downturn began," he added. [
]BUYERS AT BAY
Speculation is high that the Fed will trim its funds rate by a slim 25 basis points to 2.0 percent and signal a desire to hold rates there for the time being. [
]The nervous wait kept buyers at bay and Asian stocks outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> slipped 0.3 percent by 0217 GMT. Although the earnings season has frayed European and U.S. nerves, strong quarterly result from Bank of China <3988.HK> helped Hong Kong's Hang Seng index <
> rise 1.1 percent to a three-month high.On Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average <
> percent slipped 0.16 percent as this year's biggest U.S. takeover bid offset comments by influential investor Warren Buffett, one of the deal's backers, that the country could face a long and deep recession.Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway <BRKa.N> will help finance Mars Inc's $23 billion offer for Wm Wrigley Jr Co <WWY.N>, the world's largest chewing gum maker. [
]The offer showed signs of life in the moribund U.S. merger and acquisition market and underscored the notion that stocks are relatively cheap.
PAULSON SEES "HEADWINDS"
Buffett also expressed wariness of a prolonged downturn.
"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett told CNBC television. "This will not be short and shallow."
"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things," Buffett said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Monday that the economy was facing "headwinds" in the form of rising oil prices and commodity costs <.CRB>, but insisted its long-term economic fundamentals remained sound.
"I think there's a concern that supply is tight, could get tighter and there's a potential for disruption down the road," he said.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil was quoted as saying oil could go to $200 a barrel if the dollar kept falling. [
]U.S. crude oil futures <CLc1> hit a record high of $119.93 on Monday because of supply worries caused by attacks in Nigeria and the closure of a British oil pipeline after a refinery strike. The price trickled back to $118.30 in Asian trade on Tuesday.
"The issues in Nigeria and North Sea are significant but these outages tend to be overcome pretty quickly, so I think the market is taking profit from record prices," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodities analyst at the Australian & New Zealand Bank. (Additional reporting by Geraldine Chua in SYDNEY and Fayen Wong in PERTH; Editing by Lincoln Feast)