*Fx, equities firm, zloty eases slightly
*IMF to send mission to Romania in Jan.
(Recasts with new prices, comments, background.)
WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Most of emerging Europe's currencies firmed slightly on Monday in thin trade ahead of the year-end, and the region is expected to extend gains next year.
Central European assets shrugged off news that Russia may cut oil deliveries to the region to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic [
]. The main stock market indices in the region firmed 0.5-1.5 percent."Three or four deals all day...," one Budapest-based currency dealer said. "We may see slightly more lively trade on Dec. 30 and 31 when year-end positions will be closed."
The Czech crown<EURCZK=> and Hungary's forint <EURHUF=> were bid 0.1 percent firmer versus the euro at 1441 GMT, from levels before the Christmas holidays. Romania's leu<EURRON=> gained 0.2 percent, while Poland's zloty<EURPLN=> eased 0.2 percent.
The zloty has firmed by over 18 percent from its lows early this year, the biggest currency gain in the region. It is likely to remain the favourite of investors after markets become liquid again next year, buoyed by Poland's stronger fundamentals than elsewhere in the region, dealers said.
Dealers said Romania's leu could also firm further early next year as a political crisis that has stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid approaches a resolution.
An IMF mission will return to Romania on Jan. 21 to resume aid talks according to a report [
] and the newly appointed government is seen passing a cost-cutting 2010 budget through parliament in January."After a few grim months, these should give the leu a boost," said a trader in Bucharest.
Dealers said the Czech central bank surprise interest rate cut earlier this month to a record low of one percent could still weigh on the crown in the short term, but it could join a likely firming trend in the region later.
"Although we do not believe there will be any massive activity in local carry trades funded by the Czech crown, it may lag behind the region in the beginning of the year," CSOB analysts said in a note.
"It should tune back to the regional mood gradually though, since no more rate cuts loom after the December one, according to the minutes (of the meeting [
], and compared to spring 2007 there are other more favorable funding currencies for carry trades now, such as the dollar or yen," they added. --------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT-------------------- Currency Latest Previous Local Localclose currency currency
change change
today in 2009 Czech crown <EURCZK=> 26.396 26.421 +0.09% +1.35% Polish zloty <EURPLN=> 4.155 4.146 -0.22% -0.96% Hungarian forint <EURHUF=> 272.92 273.14 +0.08% -3.43% Croatian kuna <EURHRK=> 7.302 7.311 +0.12% +0.86% Romanian leu <EURRON=> 4.2 4.208 +0.19% -4.42% Serbian dinar <EURRSD=> 96.05 95.843 -0.22% -6.84%
Yield Spreads Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=> 3-yr T-bond CZ3YT=RR +5 basis points to 129bps over bmk* 7-yr T-bond CZ7YT=RR +11 basis points to +92bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond CZ10YT=RR +5 basis points to +73bps over bmk* Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=> 2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR -5 basis points to +367bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR -4 basis points to +330bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR -2 basis points to +289bps over bmk* Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=> 3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR -4 basis points to +549bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR -4 basis points to +500bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR -1 basis points to +427bps over bmk* *Benchmark is German bond equivalent. All data taken from Reuters at 1541 CET. Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic close at 1600 GMT.
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